Philosophiae Doctor - PhD (Economics)

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Determinants of non-performing loans in Namibia’s banking sector
(University of the Western Cape, 2024) Valdemar João Undji
This thesis comprises of six chapters and investigates issues related to non-performing loans (NPL), a proxy for credit risk, with a particular focus on the banking sector of Namibia. The issues covered include a) assessing the evolution of Namibia’s financial system post-independence in 1990; b) determining the factors influencing the quality of Namibia’s loan portfolio; c) examining the causality between NPL and the identified factors; d) a stress-testing analysis examining the credit risk vulnerability of Namibia’s banking sector; and e) a forecast of the quality of Namibia’s banking sector loan portfolio. These five issues are interwoven and are subdivided into three main sets of objectives which are extensively explored in Chapters II, IV and V. Chapters II analysis the first objective that evaluates the evolution of the Namibian financial system post-independence in 1990. The structure and composition of the financial system is discussed along with its contributions to employment creation and economic growth. The ownership structure of the banking sector and its overall performance is also outlined. The finding reveals that the influence of non-bank financial intermediaries has grown significantly overtime, whilst the dominance of the financial sector has shrunk in the face of credit risk pressure. The financial sector’s contribution to employment is minimum and it is likely to worsen as developments in the artificial intelligence world continue.
Capital structure and profitability of state-owned enterprises in Namibia
(University of the Western Cape, 2022) Johannes, Meameno; Sheefeni, Johannes
Public enterprises require an optimal capital structure mix to fund long-term assets that will generate adequate resources to allow the public enterprises to remain financially sustainable over-time. The aim of this study is thus to examine the association between capital structure and profitability among Namibian commercial SOEs, to determine the direction of causality, if any, and to investigate the factors that impact capital structure among commercial SOEs in Namibia. Understanding the impact of capital structure on the performance of commercial SOEs could help the government and public enterprises to determine the apt level of capital structure that would allow these commercial SOEs to effectively take up their respective mandates. Data for various commercial SOEs for the period 2011-2020 was used in the analysis.
Essays on financial market development, monetary policy, and financial stability in South Africa
(University of the Western Cape, 2022) Hlongwane, Tshembhani Mackson; Sheefeni, Johannes
Like in many other countries, the South African financial markets play an important role in the transmission of monetary policy and are crucial for promoting financial stability in South Africa. The goal of financial market development is to make the financial system better able to share risks effectively by combining domestic and international savings to finance investment and consumption. This thesis examined financial market development, monetary policy, and financial stability in South Africa from 2003 and 2020. The study aimed at addressing four specific objectives. Firstly, the study gives an overview of the financial market, monetary policy conduct and financial stability in South Africa. Secondly, it investigated the dynamic interactions between financial market and monetary policy in South Africa.
Essays on financial inclusion in South Africa
(University of the Western Cape, 2022) Matsebula, Velenkosini N. D.; Sheefeni, Johannes P S
South Africa is known to be troubled by numerous persistent economic problems of inequality, poverty and high unemployment. The country is simultaneously praised for a well-developed financial sector that provides a sophisticated array of financial products. Financial inclusion plays an important role to eradicate poverty and boost economic prosperity, yet financial inclusion is an under-researched topic in South Africa. With the growing recognition of the role financial inclusion plays on the economy, considerable increase in empirical work that seeks to examine its relationship with economic development has also been seen. A rather abandoned area is the macroeconomic relations of FI, particularly due to the fact that, until recent, there was little to no macroeconomic data on FI. This study adopts a threefold approach in examining FI in South Africa.
The applicability of the quantity theory of money in a multicurrency economy: Lessons from Zimbabwe 2009-2019
(University of the Western Cape, 2022) Chivige, Tariro; Sheefeni, Johannes
One of the first economic theories to ever study the effects of money on price levels is the Quantity Theory of Money (QTM). Both traditionally and empirically, the tenets of this study have been studied in mono currency economies. However, due to the ever-changing modernday economies, countries suffering from intense economic problems like inflation have abandoned the use of their own local currencies opting to use multiple foreign currencies as legal tender. This study explores the applicability of the Quantity Theory of Money in a multicurrency economy, a yawning gap in scholarship. More so, no studies have sought to simultaneously look at the different approaches to the QTM in one study to establish their applicability in a multicurrency economy.
The association between socioeconomic factors, alcohol use and alcohol-related outcomes in South Africa
(University of Western Cape, 2021) Govera, Hemish; Bayat, Amiena
This thesis researched the relationship between alcohol consumption, socioeconomic characteristics and alcohol-related harms such as subjective health status, chronic health conditions and mental health status in South Africa. The study sought to determine if the alcohol harm paradox (AHP) exists in the country. The AHP is the empirical finding that socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals tend to suffer more alcohol-related harms compared to individuals who are socioeconomically advantaged, despite reporting similar or lower levels of alcohol consumption on average. The research presented the contextual background to alcohol consumption in the country that helped form the current drinking culture, which includes the harmful drinking culture fomented by the apartheid system in the townships and farms of South Africa. The study also reviewed the effectiveness of current alcohol policies and legislation in addressing alcohol-related harms in the South African society.
The development hub as an integrated strategy to accelerate LED in small towns
(University of the Western Cape, 2013) Nothnagel, Emil; Wolfgang, Thomas
Evolving out of my past experience as municipal manager, the study addresses one of the topical issues in municipalities, viz. the quest for more effective and sustainable local economic development (LED) in small towns. Through an extensive review of the literature and best practices of LED among South African and international municipalities, viable and reproducible strategies were examined and compared. The focus of my indepth research falls primarily on towns in the Western Cape, but lessons from other parts of South Africa also form part of this research. The conclusions drawn are not only relevant in South Africa, but can also be applied in southern Africa and other African sub-continents. Based on the qualitative evidence gathered from three in-depth case studies and a Western Cape sample of tourism places, the study explores the interaction of public- and private-sector involvement in the generation of LED momentum. As such the study focuses on the principles of successful public-private partnerships and how such partnerships can be enhanced through different types of projects. The study presents an LED framework, also referred to as a "development hub", to bring together the different elements of an integrated strategy. Based on the lessons drawn from the case studies and the literature review, the final section of the study presents a strategy framework which should be useful and applicable to other small towns, even if their growth is not tourism-based, and they are not located in South Africa's Western Cape. Hopefully the study will stimulate serious and in-depth debate among policy planners as well as key development stakeholders in small towns regarding viable LED strategising and the practical implementation of those strategies.
The development hub as an integrated strategy to accelerate led in small towns
(University of the Western Cape, 2013) Nothnagel, Emil; Wolfgang, H. Thomas
Evolving out of my past experience as municipal manager, the study addresses one of the topical issues in municipalities, viz. the quest for more effective and sustainable local economic development (LED) in small towns. Through an extensive review of the literature and best practices of LED among South African and international municipalities, viable and reproducible strategies were examined and compared. The focus of my in depth research falls primarily on towns in the Western Cape, but lessons from other parts of South Africa also form part of this research. The conclusions drawn are not only relevant in South Africa, but can also be applied in southern Africa and other African sub-continents. Based on the qualitative evidence gathered from three in-depth case studies and a Western Cape sample of tourism places, the study explores the interaction of public- and private-sector involvement in the generation of LED momentum. As such the study focuses on the principles of successful public-private partnerships and how such partnerships can be enhanced through different types of projects. The study presents an LED framework, also referred to as a "development hub", to bring together the different elements of an integrated strategy. Based on the lessons drawn from the case studies and the literature review, the final section of the study presents a strategy framework which should be useful and applicable to other small towns, even if their growth is not tourism-based, and they are not located in South Africa's Western Cape. Hopefully the study will stimulate serious and in-depth debate among policy planners as well as key development stakeholders in small towns regarding viable LED strategising and the practical implementation of those strategies.
A time dimensional extension to standard poverty
(University of the Western Cape, 2021) Nackerdien, Moegammad Faeez; Yu, Derek
Most poverty studies ignore the dimension of time and are merely concerned if an individual meets certain money-metric or non-income welfare (e.g., access to services and asset ownership) criteria. They fail to recognise the limited time (24hours per day) available to complete tasks and the added difficulties they have even though there is an abundance of money-metric and asset-related non-money-metric poverty studies. (Kim et al. 2014:1). For example, individuals/households deemed poor by standard measures cannot afford market alternatives to assist them with non-market work (like childcare). Therefore, they find themselves spending all their time in market and non-market work without taking time for rest and improving themselves. Recognising non-market work and the allocation of time allows for a greater understanding into the role of women and Africans whose non-market work are unrecognised by standard economic measures such as GDP (Ferrant 2014:1). There are also only a few in-depth studies on time poverty, but they fail to utilise the most current data. Therefore, this study seeks to provide insights into how household production impacts on South African welfare. It explores the income, time poor and the extent of time allocation differences for various personal characteristics. It estimates the likelihood of time poverty based on an individual’s time schedule and the factors which most likely results in time poverty. In this study, various time concepts and measures were explored adding to the scarcely found South African time poverty studies which lack in-depth exploration. At the same time the study highlighted household production, an aspect closely linked to time poverty which affects certain groups of people more (females and Africans), and its welfare implications completely ignored by standard measures of the economy. The study also aimed to examine the relationship between time and income poverty. The study utilised the 2000 and 2010 South African Time Use Survey data by focusing on two main themes: time use patterns (to better understand household production) and time poverty (to measure it and understands its relationship with income poverty). The descriptive results revealed that both mean SNA (System of National Accounts internationally agreed standard for production)) and non-SNA production time increased over time at the cost of the non-productive time. Also, mean paid and unpaid work increased over time.
A time dimensional extension to standard poverty analyses in South Africa
(University of the Western Cape, 2021) Nackerdien, Moegammad Faeez; Yu, Derek
Most poverty studies ignore the dimension of time and are merely concerned if an individual meets certain money-metric or non-income welfare (e.g., access to services and asset ownership) criteria. They fail to recognise the limited time (24hours per day) available to complete tasks and the added difficulties they have even though there is an abundance of money-metric and asset-related non-money-metric poverty studies. (Kim et al. 2014:1). For example, individuals/households deemed poor by standard measures cannot afford market alternatives to assist them with non-market work (like childcare). Therefore, they find themselves spending all their time in market and non-market work without taking time for rest and improving themselves. Recognising non-market work and the allocation of time allows for a greater understanding into the role of women and Africans whose non-market work are unrecognised by standard economic measures such as GDP (Ferrant 2014:1). There are also only a few in-depth studies on time poverty, but they fail to utilise the most current data. Therefore, this study seeks to provide insights into how household production impacts on South African welfare. It explores the income, time poor and the extent of time allocation differences for various personal characteristics. It estimates the likelihood of time poverty based on an individual’s time schedule and the factors which most likely results in time poverty.
Evaluating the impact of facility and household-level factors on early learning development in Philippi, Western Cape
(University of Western Cape, 2021) Madyibi, Siphe; Bayat, Amiena
Early learning opportunities in South Africa are both inaccessible and unequal in quality due to facility and household-level factors. With minimal resources, Early Childhood Development (ECD) facilities in poor communities provide low-quality ECD services to children. Part of the reason that ECD facilities are under-resourced and of poor quality is their inadequate funding. The disparity in quality means that poor children may still lag behind children who have had access to high-quality, well-resourced ECD facilities. Beside facility-level factors, the process of early learning is also influenced by household factors. Studies have found that low-cost stimulations such as storytelling, singing and playing with household objects can be used as tools to promote early development within the confines of the household.
The econometrics of structural change: statistical analysis and forecasting in the context of the South African economy
(University of the Western Cape, 1994) Wesso, Gilbert R.; Kótze, D.
One of the assumptions of conventional regression analysis is I that the parameters are constant over all observations. It has often been suggested that this may not be a valid assumption to make, particularly if the econometric model is to be used for economic forecasting0 Apart from this it is also found that econometric models, in particular, are used to investigate the underlying interrelationships of the system under consideration in order to understand and to explain relevant phenomena in structural analysis. The pre-requisite of such use of econometrics is that the regression parameters of the model is assumed to be constant over time or across different crosssectional units.
Essays on savings in South Africa
(University of the Western Cape, 2019) Kasongo, Atoko; Sheefeni, Johannes. P.
Savings is essential for boosting economic growth. Low savings in a country will have negative consequences for both investment and economic growth. South Africa has continued to expe rience declining saving rates and in recent years, accompanied by declining economic growth. The study evaluated savings in South Africa by decomposing it into household saving, cor porate saving and public saving. The focus was to investigate the determinants of household savings, corporate and public savings. In addition to examining the determinants of savings, the research has also analysed the saving-investment relationship for South Africa. The study used a Bayesian vector auto regressive model to investigate the determinants of household sav ing from 1980Q1 to 2017Q4. The results of the investigation on household saving showed that GDP, inﬂation rate, and ﬁnancial deepening determine household saving in South Africa. The Bayesian VAR was also used to identify the determinant of budget deﬁcit between 1980Q1 to 2017Q and found Real GDP, inﬂation rate, total government debt, investment by general government and the inﬂation rate to be determinants. The Blundel-Bond Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) was used to investigate the determinants of corporate saving in form of cash holding for 80 non-ﬁnancial ﬁrms listed on the JSE between 2007 and 2017. The results showed leverage, cash ﬂow, debt maturity and previous amounts of cash holding to have signiﬁcant eﬀect on cash holding in SA. Lastly, the study examined the saving-investment nexus for South Africa using yearly data from 1980 to 2016. Using the Autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) and the Error Correction Model, (ECM), the study found a cointegrating relationship between domestic saving and domestic investment. It further found a positive relationship between domestic saving and domestic investment in both the short and long run. Causality analysis showed a unidirectional causality from domestic saving to domestic investment.
Infrastructure investment in Sub-Saharan Africa: Opportunities, risks and prospects for economic development
(University of Western Cape, 2020) Mphigalale, Tshifhiwa Victor; Bayat, Amiena
There is considerable theoretical and empirical research devoted to the study of infrastructure investment and development and how they relate to economic growth. There is also evidence in developed economies that their economies grew following infrastructure investment. The inference can be made that infrastructure investment plays a positive role in economic growth. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is immensely well-endowed with natural resources yet is the poorest region in the world. Furthermore, SSA countries have similar experiences of public infrastructure investment, such as not having enough transportation infrastructure or the lack of an adequate power supply. Where public infrastructure exists in SSA can be described as ageing, decaying, inappropriate, incomplete or dysfunctional to some degree. The study conducted both qualitative and quantitative analyses to evaluate infrastructure investment in three SSA countries – Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ghana – to determine what levels of investment, challenges and needs are currently experienced in private and public infrastructure investment in the region, particularly pertaining to transportation, energy and ICT infrastructure, and what factors may be influencing investors to avoid investing in SSA infrastructure. The research found that the DRC has the least infrastructure investment while Ghana is ahead of the three countries. The research also found that while Ghana is ahead of the three countries, its governance system is also better and is less corrupt compared to the other two economies with the DRC being at the bottom. As a result, infrastructure investment in SSA has fallen far behind its trading partners due to poor governance and corruption.
The provision of epistemological access for successful student learning at university: Towards a readiness model for business, commerce and management sciences learners in the further education and training phase
(University of Western Cape, 2020) Venter, Antoinette; McGhie, Venicia; Dos Reis, Karen
This study was about the provision of epistemological access to Grade 10 to 12 learners in the business-related subjects of Accounting, Business Studies and Economics at two public high schools in the Western Cape Province. The aim of the study was twofold. Firstly, it investigated whether the Grade 10 to 12 learners had adequate subject content knowledge and skills in Accounting, Business Studies and Economics. Secondly, it wanted to identify the challenges that the learners at the two high schools were experiencing in these subjects and the reasons why.
Bureaucracy, law and power - water allocation for productive use: Policy and implementation, a case study of black emerging farmers in the Breede Gour i t z Water Management Area in theWestern Cape,South Africa, 2005-2017
(University of the Western Cape, 2019) Williams, Sandra Elizabeth; Ruiters, Gregory
This study examines the problems of implementing water allocation policy in the context of the local state bureaucracy as well as the specific experiences of local black emerging farmers in the Breede Gouritz Water Management Area. This study used qualitative research methods and is based on many hours of interviews and observing bureaucrats and stakeholders at the receiving end of the bureaucratic business process of water allocation. It is not only concerned with the physical and technical aspects of access but explores how the different role players interact, navigate, shape, frame and manage challenges to gain access to and control water for productive use. The actual experiences and understandings of the stakeholders in their own contexts when engaging with the access to water are crucial to gain a comprehensive understanding and insight into the influence of bureaucracy and power relations. This thesis therefore maps the confusions and incapacities and shows that even though the South African laws are based on the best international frameworks, they fail, as they do not sufficiently address the unique environment and landscape. Existing scholarship has not adequately researched local bureaucratic power. At the coalface of implementation, bureaucrats make up their own rules to cope with rapid policy churning. Combined with existing power relations, policy implementation and policy direction is steered towards different and unintended trajectories, making transformation a challenge to achieve. Consequently, my main finding is that there have been constant and rapid legislative and policy changes but they have simply added to the confusion and instability.
The economic impact of FinTech in the South African banking industry: A case of digital disruption
(University of the Western Cape, 2019) Mungai, Kinyanjui; Bayat, Amiena
The Fourth Industrial Revolution has provided new opportunities to tackle problems in health, education, transport and many other sectors. In the financial sector, new financial technology (FinTech) is providing new ways of tackling the problem of financial exclusion. The uptake of cell phones has enabled financial service providers (FSPs) to expand into areas where the most vulnerable have hitherto been outside the reach of the banking agency model. This has ultimately allowed previously financially excluded individuals to have access to bank accounts. Through SMACT (Social Media, Mobile, Analytics, Cloud and the Internet of Things) technologies, FSPs are able to collect new types of data such as call detail record data and mobile app data which have been leveraged globally to enable the emergence of M-Pesa in Kenya, the WeChat payments module in China and KakaoBank, South Korea’s first online-only bank. The common thread in these innovations is that these are telecommunications company-led business models that have encroached into the area of finance. Such digital disruption has happened in South Africa but little is understood about how inclusive digital financial services are in the South African context. Moreover, what are the barriers to further financial inclusion, given that South Africa has significantly high bank account uptake rates? What role can the Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies have in breaking those barriers and reaching the lower-income population that has largely been mis-sold financial products that were created for the middle to upper-income population? This study sought to investigate how the diffusion of SMACT technology has contributed to financial inclusion in the South African financial services sector. The study made use of a mixed methods approach to answer this research question. Finscope data from 2012 to 2015 was used as the data source for the quantitative section and key informant interviews as the source of data for the qualitative section. The study found that roughly 80% of adults in South Africa are financially included through formal banks. Despite the near 100% uptake rates of cell phones across all income groups, proximity to an ATM or bank branch still significantly determined whether an individual accessed formal financial services. The study also found that ATM withdrawal, store withdrawal and internet banking were infrequently utilised by lower-income adults. In terms of internet banking and digital financial services in general, financial products, especially digital credit, do not appear to be well aligned with the needs of the lower-income consumer. The mismatch of financial products and the needs of lower-income consumers is further worsened by poor financial literacy levels in South Africa, especially among lower-income consumers. The study concludes that more needs to be done to increase economic inclusion, digital inclusion and financial inclusion for the lower-income population in South Africa. While consumer protection and transparency are well covered in the regulatory and legislative framework to which FSPs by and large adhere, a more inclusive and sustainable financial sector will only exist if product fit, affordability, financial literacy and convenience issues are addressed. This should happen in an enabling environment where ICT infrastructure benefits all, interoperability of digital financial services is reached and a regulatory framework more focused on financial inclusion is in place.
Investigating underemployment in South Africa
(University of the Western Cape, 2018) Baidoo, Emmanuel; Yu, Derek
Labour economists in South Africa have extensively researched on almost all aspects of the unemployment phenomenon, specifically, the levels and extent of unemployment as well as the causes of unemployment have received a lot of empirical attention. One category of the labour force, namely the underemployed, has mostly been ignored in empirical studies. An investigation into the prevalence and rate of underemployment is essential because unemployment alone underestimates the magnitude of a country’s available excess labour capacity. The study focuses on various conceptual and empirical issues, including the definition of underemployment, the extent of underemployment in South Africa, demographic characteristics of the underemployed, an empirical estimation of the total earnings effect of underemployment, the duration of underemployment, and the possible policy options to tackle underemployment. To achieve its research objectives, the study conducts various descriptive and econometric analyses, using the data from the 1995-2016 labour force surveys and the first four waves of NIDS conducted in 2008-2015.
Financial development, health care system financing and health outcomes: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa
(University of the Western Cape, 2018) Chireshe, Jaison; Ocran, Matthew
This thesis purposes to examine the impact of financial development on health outcomes, health care expenditure and financial protection in health in 46 selected sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 1995 to 2014. It also estimates the impact of health care expenditure on health outcomes. The thesis is premised on the hypothesis that health care expenditure is a critical transmission mechanism through which financial development leads to better health outcomes. The health care expenditure channel is conspicuously absent in the literature on financial development and health outcomes; hence the need for this study to fill the gap in the literature. The thesis explores the effects of both depth and access dimensions of financial development on health outcomes, expenditure and financial protection. Throughout the study, financial access is measured by the number of automated teller machines (ATMs) and commercial bank branches per 100 000 people, while financial depth is measured by the proportion of broad money and bank credit to the private sector, to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The study uses fixed and random effects and the Two-Stage Least Squares estimation approaches. The Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) is also used to estimate the impact of health care expenditure and health outcomes given the absence of valid instrumental variables. The results of the regression analyses show that financial development leads to increased health care expenditure and health outcomes. The analysis also shows that health care expenditure leads to better health outcomes. Additionally, the study indicates that financial development leads to financial protection in health care by reducing out-of-pocket health care expenditure. Well-developed financial systems provide financial protection from the risk of catastrophic health care expenditure and impoverishment resulting from illness. The study shows that health care systems financed through prepaid mechanisms reduce neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates and increase life expectancy, while those relying on out-of-pocket expenditure have adverse effects on health outcomes.
Essays on stock markets in Sub-Saharan Africa
(University of the Western Cape, 2018) Atsin, Achiapo Jessica Lisette; Ocran, Matthew K
The main objective of this thesis was to closely examine several nancial and economic aspects of the stock markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, the objectives of this thesis were to explore the interdependence, the time-varying conditional correlation and the volatility linkages among Sub-Saharan African and developed stock markets; to investigate the relationship between - nancial liberalization and the development of stock markets; and to examine the patterns of the aggregate market liquidity and the relevance of the mainstream determinants of market liquidity in the chosen Sub-Saharan African stock markets. The study was composed of three standalone essays. The rst essay, which investigated stock price co-movements and the volatility linkages between selected Sub-Saharan African markets and the key developed markets, used the Johansen cointegration test, the VECM and the GARCH models for the sample period 2 January 2009 { 31 December 2016. The second essay, examining the e ect of nancial liberalization on the development of stock markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, employed the Bayesian VAR for the sample period 1975Q1 { 2014Q4. Lastly, the third essay, which investigated the determinants of liquidity levels in Sub-Saharan African stock markets employed the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive model for the sample period 2 January 2009 { 31 December 2016.This study aimed at contributing to the already existing literature by focusing on analysing four key stock markets in the region, namely the Nigerian Stock Exchange, the Kenyan Securities Exchange.

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