Philosophiae Doctor - PhD (Economics)

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The econometrics of structural change: statistical analysis and forecasting in the context of the South African economy
(University of the Western Cape, 1994) Wesso, Gilbert R.; Kótze, D.
One of the assumptions of conventional regression analysis is I that the parameters are constant over all observations. It has often been suggested that this may not be a valid assumption to make, particularly if the econometric model is to be used for economic forecasting0 Apart from this it is also found that econometric models, in particular, are used to investigate the underlying interrelationships of the system under consideration in order to understand and to explain relevant phenomena in structural analysis. The pre-requisite of such use of econometrics is that the regression parameters of the model is assumed to be constant over time or across different crosssectional units.
Genetic analysis for resistance to Woolly Apple Aphid in an apple rootstock breeding population
(2007) Selala, Mapurunyane Callies; Rees, D.J.G.
Genetic analysis for resistance to Woolly Apple Aphid in apple rootstock breeding populations MC Selala MSc Thesis, Department of Biotechnology, Faculty of Science, University of the WesternCape. The Woolly Apple Aphid (WAA) Eriosoma lanigerum (Hausm.) (Homoptera: Aphididae) is economically one of the most important pests in apple commercial production in the Western Cape province, South Africa. The apple cultivar Northern Spy possesses a single major gene (Er1) responsible for E. lanigerum resistance. This cultivar has been used as a commercial rootstock in apple breeding programmes. There are other genes also implicated in resistance to E. lanigerum from other cultivars. Manipulation and pyramiding of the E. lanigerum resistance genes (Er1, Er2 and Er3) might provide a necessary control for commercial apple production. The aim of this study was to construct a genetic linkage map for apple using microsatellite markers. The use of marker-assisted selection would greatly benefit local apple breeding programmes. Ninety six seedlings from a Northern Spy × Cox Orange Pippin mapping population were used for genetic linkage construction. Phenotypic data collection and analysis were performed to determine the E. lanigerum infestation patterns and the levels of resistance conferred by the Er1 gene from Northern Spy using 52 in vitro propagated seedlings in the greenhouse. Classification and quantification analysis showed association patterns between first assessments (30 days) to second assessment (60 days) in all replicate blocks. Roots and shoots data showed that it could be useful in quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis, but may be used in different QTLs beingidentified due to the variations between roots and shoots data. A preliminary linkage map was constructed using a mapping population from Northern Spy × Cox Orange Pippin (96 seedlings).Fluorescently labelled published and predicted microsatellite markers were used in map construction. Primers were optimised using single apple cultivar and the detection of polymorphisms using nine apple cultivars. Optimised markers were multiplexed for high throughput data generation using the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) technique. Multiplexed PCR products were pooled and analysed on an ABI 310 PRISM™ Genetic Analyser to determine allele fragment sizes, and the inherited segregation types in the seedlings. Computer software GenoTyper® 2.5.2 and JoinMap® 3.0 was used in data analysis from ABI 310 PRISM™Genetic Analyser and linkage map construction. Seventy two markers were used in linkage map construction, which produced nine linkage groups with some segments from the same linkage group. Twenty-one markers were aligned on the map 20 published and one predicted. Only one linkage group consisted of five markers while other linkage groups had two markers each. This study has proved that th preliminary linkage map could be used as the basis of a complete linkage map of Northern Spy × Cox Orange Pippin.
Trade preferenes and industrial export dynamism: conceptualising the nexus between asymmetric market access priviledges and social capability deficits
(2008-08) Suyuti, Na-Allah Abdelrasaq; Kongolo, Mukole
The 1996 Singapore Ministerial Declaration refocused attention in the international community on the idea of non-reciprocal system of trade preferences as a means of development assistance. Authors of the initiative had hoped that such policy would among others, help promote industrial exports and facilitate sustainable development in developing countries. However, this happened against the background that previous schemes could not be particularly associated with any form of sustainable export successes that were usually contemplated and expected from beneficiaries. In view of the developmental implications of this renewed focus, the imperativeness of an reconsideration of the economics of the programme cannot be overemphasized. While extant trade preference studies have made important contributions to our understanding of their effectiveness, the limited focus of research on direct impact like, static increases in exports, foreign direct investment (FDI) and employments does not seem to provide satisfactory assessment. Very often, the expected indirect or dynamic impact on productivity improvements needed to strengthen competitive capacities and make gains (export performance) sustainable is neglected. In this study an attempt is made to address this issue. The main objective of the research is therefore to analyse the relationship between nonreciprocal system of trade preferences and industrial export performance sustainability in beneficiary countries. This is accomplished by utilising a new analytical insight from the global production network literature. The advantages of this analytical departure lie not just in the fact that it allows us to accommodate the dynamic dimension of impact assessment into the study framework, but also helps reflect the concerns of globalisation advocates in the contemporary analysis of development issues. These advocates argue that research on economic development in general and industrial development in particular in the new era of global capitalism must as a matter of necessity, be informed by the literature on globalisation. After conceptualising an analytical model which has both static and dynamic dimension, it is then applied and tested for the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) Trade Initiative of 2000. Lesotho’s apparel export under the scheme serves as the case study for this investigation. Results of the econometric estimation for the static impact assessment reveal that AGOA has been effective in stimulating Lesotho apparel exports to the US market. The dynamic impact assessment dimension is carried out within the context of the debate on economic growth and convergence. Specifically, it is argued that the conditions necessary for export performance to be sustainable require that national social-capability in a beneficiary economy be adequate and sufficient. The estimated regression confirms this hypothesis for the reference case study. Overall, the dissertation has shown that research in economics can benefit from analytical insights borrowed from other disciplines. More important however, is the study’s contribution to the trade policy debate on the impact of trade preferences on export development. On one hand, the static impact analysis addresses a key gap in existing works which seems to place so much emphasis on aggregated national level data and cross-country regression as bases for empirical evidence. By utilising disaggregated firm level data for a specific country, analysis here finds relevance in the continuing policy debate on trade preference impact assessment. On the other hand, the dynamic aspect of the analytical model has not only helped us to shift the frontier of knowledge beyond its current static boundary, but also to inform the debate on economic growth and convergence. As efforts to unravel the puzzle over the non-convergence of cross-country growth performances continue to flourish, findings here lend credence to the hypothesis that social capability matters for economic performance of nations.
A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the department of economics, university of the Western Cape
(2008-12) Ntibanyurwa, Agnes; Jacobs and Black, Dr Peter, Prof. Philip
The income and employment multiplier effects of tourism- The case of Rwanda. A. NTIBANYURWA PhD Thesis, Department of Economics, University of the Western Cape. The growing popularity of developing countries as tourist destinations in recent years has stimulated a considerable body of research on the developmental benefits inherent in tourism. Developing countries have been attracting tourists mainly due to their natural resource endowments, considered a vital determinant in this newly-found source of their comparative advantage. After accounting for all the explicit and hidden costs linked to this natural resource-based tourism, the sustainable expansion of the tourism sector is claimed to be contributing substantially to economic growth. Studies to date have investigated the rising share of tourism in macroeconomic output, but have paid limited attention to the economic mechanisms through which tourism supposedly leads to broader development. This study seeks to contribute to filling this gap in our knowledge of the economic dynamics associated with tourism. More specifically, the goal is to shed light on the channels through which tourism contributes to economic growth and to derive tourism income and employment multipliers to estimate its developmental benefits for Rwanda. Our refined multipliers to capture the total effects of tourism to the economy confirm that through its powerful inter-sectoral linkages, tourism improves the economic wealth of many developing countries including Rwanda. Deeper analysis of the macroeconomic consequences of the expansion of the service sector however suggests that, under some conditions, this could exhibit “Dutch Disease” effects. Tourism generates substantial foreign earnings and its development is strongly correlated with the shrinkage of the traditional primary
Integrated performance management systems and motivation in the South African public sector
(2010) Saravanja, Marko; Pretorius, Leon G.
Performance management processes in the South African public service are often perceived and implemented in isolation from other organisational and management policies, strategies, systems and processes. The central problem addressed in this study concerns the lack of integration of different aspects of performance management into a coherent system. This problem affects motivation and performance of staff.This study provides an overview of the broad field of performance management and specifically focuses on public service integrated performance management systems. One of the main objectives of this study is to identify performance management challenges from an integrated perspective and to develop potential solutions for these challenges.In order to achieve this objective, a literature review and data collection processes were conducted, which served as the foundation on which the research was based. The qualitative research methodology was chosen as it allows for interpretative research and a holistic approach to the research process, which ensures the best way of representing and addressing the complexities of integrated performance management systems and motivation within the context of the public sector. Seventy-six respondents, mainly senior and middle managers from various national and provincial government departments, participated in the study.The fieldwork results identified major strengths, weaknesses and proposed suggestions for the improvement of the existing performance management systems in the public service. Results were analysed, interpreted, discussed and incorporated into the recommendations. Contrary to some negative public perceptions and anecdotal evidence of poor public service performance management, the majority of senior managers in government departments are satisfied with the overall quality, value for money, relevance, appropriateness and simplicity of the process. Integration of various subsystems of performance management system is facilitated by policy initiatives such as cooperative governance and intergovernmental relations. One of the major areas of dissatisfaction is the time required for conducting the performance management process, which is often seen as a last minute compliance exercise. The performance management system has become an isolated activity, not linked to organisational strategy and processes. Additional major weaknesses of the performance management system are identified in the areas of the reward system, design of the system, objectivity of performance judgement, lack of skills and leadership support in the implementation process, communication,and monitoring and evaluation processes.The study recommends that performance management has to be approached from an integrated perspective. The process of the design of performance management must include a thorough consultation with major stakeholders.The implementation of the system has to be supported and driven by top leadership and management. The change management process should be supported by a proactive communication strategy and it should be managed strategically and by competent staff. A reward system that distinguishes high from mediocre performance should be put in place. Programmes must be implemented to ensure high levels of staff motivation. Monitoring and evaluation mechanisms must be put in place to ensure implementation of sustainable performance management systems. These recommendations led to the design of an integrated performance management system.The study concludes that integrated performance management, as a multidisciplinary methodology related to organisational strategy, structure,culture, systems and processes, should be regarded as a critical tool for improving motivation and performance of individuals, teams, departments and the public service as a whole.
The development hub as an integrated strategy to accelerate LED in small towns
(University of the Western Cape, 2013) Nothnagel, Emil; Wolfgang, Thomas
Evolving out of my past experience as municipal manager, the study addresses one of the topical issues in municipalities, viz. the quest for more effective and sustainable local economic development (LED) in small towns. Through an extensive review of the literature and best practices of LED among South African and international municipalities, viable and reproducible strategies were examined and compared. The focus of my indepth research falls primarily on towns in the Western Cape, but lessons from other parts of South Africa also form part of this research. The conclusions drawn are not only relevant in South Africa, but can also be applied in southern Africa and other African sub-continents. Based on the qualitative evidence gathered from three in-depth case studies and a Western Cape sample of tourism places, the study explores the interaction of public- and private-sector involvement in the generation of LED momentum. As such the study focuses on the principles of successful public-private partnerships and how such partnerships can be enhanced through different types of projects. The study presents an LED framework, also referred to as a "development hub", to bring together the different elements of an integrated strategy. Based on the lessons drawn from the case studies and the literature review, the final section of the study presents a strategy framework which should be useful and applicable to other small towns, even if their growth is not tourism-based, and they are not located in South Africa's Western Cape. Hopefully the study will stimulate serious and in-depth debate among policy planners as well as key development stakeholders in small towns regarding viable LED strategising and the practical implementation of those strategies.
An integrated spiritual leadership model for the South African public service: a case of selected government departments
(University of the Western Cape, 2013) Law, Penelope Karen; Esau, Michelle
The purpose of this study is to propose and present an Integrated Spiritual Leadership (ISL) model that is relevant to the South African public service and which can address burgeoning organisational challenges. In order to realise this research purpose, the study examined theoretical perspectives pertaining to spirituality, spiritual leadership and workplace spirituality. After leadership theories within the traditional and spiritual paradigms had been discussed and compared, spiritual leadership emerged as a comprehensive leadership theory. The literature on spiritual leadership also examines empirical evidence showing the way in which spiritual leadership may enhance organisational performance. The analysis of spiritual leadership models exposed a gap in the literature and highlighted the dearth of spiritual leadership research in the African and, especially, in the South African context.
State–society relations in the ‘South African developmental state’: integrated development planning and public participation at the local level
(University of the Western Cape, 2013) Penderis, Sharon; Tapscott, Christopher
In various formulations, the idea of a developmental state has appeared in official discourse in South Africa since the advent of democratic government in 1994, albeit that its adoption as state policy has been slow, uneven and inconsistent with the original East Asian model. What has been a feature of developmental state thinking in South Africa is the fact that the concept has been so poorly articulated in policy that it has come to mean different things to different state actors and to the public. This has been aggravated by the fact that the idea of a strongly interventionist developmental state has run counter to the idea of a diminished state enunciated in various neo-liberal policies. Moreover, unlike the authoritarian and top-down East Asian model, the government envisages a South African developmental state which is infused with democratic content where citizens assist in the formulation of policy from below. In its emphasis on a bottom-up approach to policy formulation the South African model differs markedly from the conventional idea of a developmental state which is heavily reliant on a strong central bureaucracy to drive economic growth. In the South African model local government has been assigned a pivotal role in addressing persistent economic exclusion and uneven development. A central tenet of this approach is the need for local authorities to institutionalise participatory processes at grassroots level and devise effective structures and processes to facilitate citizen participation in local affairs. In the light of the above, this thesis sets out to examine the manner in which a system of developmental local government is being implemented in the City of Cape Town. Taking as a case study the township of Delft, the study looks at the systems and processes (and particularly the process of integrated development planning) set in place to advance citizen participation. It examines the extent to which the model is perceived to be achieving its goals from the perspective of political office bearers, officials from different spheres of government and residents. The research found that notwithstanding an enabling legislative and policy framework, there is little comprehension of, or interest, in the idea of developmental local government and municipal officials largely pay lip service to participatory processes which are carried out in a top-down fashion and which neither empower local residents nor enhance their welfare. It also concluded that developmental government, in its present form, is contributing little to the establishment of a national developmental state.
The development hub as an integrated strategy to accelerate led in small towns
(University of the Western Cape, 2013) Nothnagel, Emil; Wolfgang, H. Thomas
Evolving out of my past experience as municipal manager, the study addresses one of the topical issues in municipalities, viz. the quest for more effective and sustainable local economic development (LED) in small towns. Through an extensive review of the literature and best practices of LED among South African and international municipalities, viable and reproducible strategies were examined and compared. The focus of my in depth research falls primarily on towns in the Western Cape, but lessons from other parts of South Africa also form part of this research. The conclusions drawn are not only relevant in South Africa, but can also be applied in southern Africa and other African sub-continents. Based on the qualitative evidence gathered from three in-depth case studies and a Western Cape sample of tourism places, the study explores the interaction of public- and private-sector involvement in the generation of LED momentum. As such the study focuses on the principles of successful public-private partnerships and how such partnerships can be enhanced through different types of projects. The study presents an LED framework, also referred to as a "development hub", to bring together the different elements of an integrated strategy. Based on the lessons drawn from the case studies and the literature review, the final section of the study presents a strategy framework which should be useful and applicable to other small towns, even if their growth is not tourism-based, and they are not located in South Africa's Western Cape. Hopefully the study will stimulate serious and in-depth debate among policy planners as well as key development stakeholders in small towns regarding viable LED strategising and the practical implementation of those strategies.
Social capital and developmental outcomes : a case study of black communities in Cederberg and Matzikama municipalities in the mid-2000s
(University of the Western Cape, 2015) Bayat, Amiena; May, Julian; Ruiters, Greg; Marysse, Stefaan
Transforming economic growth into tangible benefits for poor communities appears to have frustrated development practitioners and policy makers. Despite the net positive growth achieved between 1994 and 2014 the face of poverty and inequality remains largely unchanged in South Africa. In such circumstances there is a pressing need for scholars to rethink the social foundations of economic activity and policy (Chang, 2006; Fine, 2001, 2005). One specific line of enquiry that has attracted attention among economists (Stiglitz, 2000; Woolcock, 2001; Fine, 2001) is that of social capital. This thesis seeks understanding of the relationship between social capital and the socioeconomic advancement of poor African/Black residents, particularly those in rural municipalities where there is a lack of financial and other resources. With this in mind, Robert Putnam’s path-breaking theory will be reformulated to explore the relationship during the mid-2000s between social capital, trust, political participation and socioeconomic outcomes in two rural municipalities in the Western Cape province of South Africa, namely Cederberg and Matzikama. The research questions the adequacy of Putnam’s theory of social capital, arguing that it is conceptually simple and inadequate as a description of how membership in social groups (networks) lead to better socioeconomic outcomes in the context of marginal, rural African/Black communities residing in under-capacitated municipalities. The thesis argues that an alternative conceptual framework is required, capable of depicting the complexity of the social processes required to translate social group membership into tangible benefits for poor households, as an explanation of why African/Blacks in Cederberg experienced better socioeconomic outcomes than their counterparts in Matzikama.
The impact of microfinance on household livelihoods : evidence from rural Eritrea
(University of the Western Cape, 2016) Habte, Amine Teclay; Visser, Kobus; Ocran, Matthew
Eritrea, a relatively young African nation, is one of the least developed countries in the world. Its economy is predominantly dependent on subsistence agriculture and the level and magnitude of poverty is more severe in rural areas. The formal financial sector is underdeveloped, state-owned, far from being competitive, and limited in terms of depth and breadth as measured by the relevant financial sector development indicators. To address the limitations of the formal banking sector and to help fill the financing gap, and improve the general livelihood of those at the lower income group, the Government of Eritrea introduced a Saving and Microcredit Programme (SMCP) in 1996 for which no scientific study measuring its impact has been done at the household level. The study was conducted in rural areas to find out whether the SMCP as a microfinance institution has improved the livelihood of its clients. The specific objectives of the study were to describe the characteristic feature of rural livelihoods in terms of the resources owned, the strategies pursued and outcomes achieved, identify and examine the determinants of household participation in the SMCP and finally assess the impact of participation in SMCP on household livelihoods. The study employed a quasi-experimental cross-sectional survey design involving structured and semi-structured questionnaire administered to 500 respondents of whom 200 represented the treated group and 300 the controlled group. Logit regression was employed to identify the factors that determine household participation in the SMCP. In regard to this, age of the client household, household size, marital status, level of education of the client household, the size of first round loan, entrepreneurial experience, type of loan product offered by the institution, ownership of livestock and microenterprise, the perception of the client on involuntary deposits, the occurrence of a negative events (shock) to the household and village access to electricity were found to have statistically significant effect on the household‟s probability to participate in the SMCP. Furthermore, the marginal effects were also computed to evaluate the contribution of each of these factors to the likelihood of participating in the SMCP. A propensity score matching model was applied to assess the impact of the programme on the livelihood of its clients. The findings reveal that participation in the SMCP has a significantly higher average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) households. Profits generated from off-farm and small microenterprises, the values of household and livestock assets, food and non-food consumption expenditures and nutrition quality, were found to be on average higher for the treated households than for the controlled households. Therefore, it could be argued that the provision of micro financial resources has significant positive effects on household livelihood outcomes. The study has important social and economic policy implication regarding the role of finance in rural development.
Essay on stock markets in Sub-saharan Africa
(University of the Western Cape, 2017) Achiapo, Jessica Lisette; Ocran, Matthew K.
The main objective of this thesis was to closely examine several nancial and economic aspects of the stock markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, the objectives of this thesis were to explore the interdependence, the time-varying conditional correlation and the volatility linkages among Sub-Saharan African and developed stock markets; to investigate the relationship between - nancial liberalization and the development of stock markets; and to examine the patterns of the aggregate market liquidity and the relevance of the mainstream determinants of market liquidity in the chosen Sub-Saharan African stock markets.
Assessment of poverty and inequality trends in the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria: Evidence from the General Household Survey of Nigeria
(University of the Western Cape, 2018) Jaiyeola, Afeez Olalekan; Bayat, Amiena
The high rate of poverty in Nigeria has reached alarming proportions. Despite average economic growth rates of 6 percent between 2004 and 2010, the incidence of poverty has remained high, increasing from 54.7 percent in 2004 to 60.9 percent in 2010 (Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, 2010). A drop in the poverty rate to an average of 56.1 percent between 1999 and 2007 could be attributed to the measures taken by the civilian government against administrative corruption, increased domestic and foreign investments and some implemented agricultural policies. These efforts were thwarted by subsequent administrations with devastating effects for the Nigerian population. It is in recognition of this that this study examines the political economy of poverty in Nigeria; analyses the variations in poverty and inequality across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria; examines the impact of economic growth on poverty reduction across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria over the period 2010 - 2013; investigates the reasons for the low rates of poverty reduction in Nigeria and analyses whether economic growth in Nigeria was pro-poor.
Trends in Household Consumption Expenditure among the Six Geopolitical Zones in Nigeria
(University of the Western Cape, 2018) Jibril, Ghazali Ado; Bayat, Amiena
This study examined the trends in household consumption expenditure among the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria within the context of Engel's law of consumption. The study specifically set out to achieve the following objectives: to determine the trends in household consumption expenditure in Nigeria; to examine the food, health, education and non-food expenditures of households in Nigeria; to estimate the food share of total household expenditure through the estimation of the Engel curve for the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria; to determine if there are consumption economies of scale among households by estimating the Working-Leser form of the Engel curve; and, to examine consumption inequality among households in the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. The study used the Nigeria General Household Survey data wave 1 (2010-2011) and wave 2 (2012-2013) to estimate the Working-Leser form of the Engel curve to determine households' budget share for food consumption and the scale of consumption among the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. The study used the Gini coefficient to measure consumption inequality among and between the six geopolitical zones.
Financial development, health care system financing and health outcomes: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa
(University of the Western Cape, 2018) Chireshe, Jaison; Ocran, Matthew
This thesis purposes to examine the impact of financial development on health outcomes, health care expenditure and financial protection in health in 46 selected sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 1995 to 2014. It also estimates the impact of health care expenditure on health outcomes. The thesis is premised on the hypothesis that health care expenditure is a critical transmission mechanism through which financial development leads to better health outcomes. The health care expenditure channel is conspicuously absent in the literature on financial development and health outcomes; hence the need for this study to fill the gap in the literature. The thesis explores the effects of both depth and access dimensions of financial development on health outcomes, expenditure and financial protection. Throughout the study, financial access is measured by the number of automated teller machines (ATMs) and commercial bank branches per 100 000 people, while financial depth is measured by the proportion of broad money and bank credit to the private sector, to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The study uses fixed and random effects and the Two-Stage Least Squares estimation approaches. The Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) is also used to estimate the impact of health care expenditure and health outcomes given the absence of valid instrumental variables. The results of the regression analyses show that financial development leads to increased health care expenditure and health outcomes. The analysis also shows that health care expenditure leads to better health outcomes. Additionally, the study indicates that financial development leads to financial protection in health care by reducing out-of-pocket health care expenditure. Well-developed financial systems provide financial protection from the risk of catastrophic health care expenditure and impoverishment resulting from illness. The study shows that health care systems financed through prepaid mechanisms reduce neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates and increase life expectancy, while those relying on out-of-pocket expenditure have adverse effects on health outcomes.
Investigating underemployment in South Africa
(University of the Western Cape, 2018) Baidoo, Emmanuel; Yu, Derek
Labour economists in South Africa have extensively researched on almost all aspects of the unemployment phenomenon, specifically, the levels and extent of unemployment as well as the causes of unemployment have received a lot of empirical attention. One category of the labour force, namely the underemployed, has mostly been ignored in empirical studies. An investigation into the prevalence and rate of underemployment is essential because unemployment alone underestimates the magnitude of a country’s available excess labour capacity. The study focuses on various conceptual and empirical issues, including the definition of underemployment, the extent of underemployment in South Africa, demographic characteristics of the underemployed, an empirical estimation of the total earnings effect of underemployment, the duration of underemployment, and the possible policy options to tackle underemployment. To achieve its research objectives, the study conducts various descriptive and econometric analyses, using the data from the 1995-2016 labour force surveys and the first four waves of NIDS conducted in 2008-2015.
Essays on stock markets in Sub-Saharan Africa
(University of the Western Cape, 2018) Atsin, Achiapo Jessica Lisette; Ocran, Matthew K
The main objective of this thesis was to closely examine several nancial and economic aspects of the stock markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, the objectives of this thesis were to explore the interdependence, the time-varying conditional correlation and the volatility linkages among Sub-Saharan African and developed stock markets; to investigate the relationship between - nancial liberalization and the development of stock markets; and to examine the patterns of the aggregate market liquidity and the relevance of the mainstream determinants of market liquidity in the chosen Sub-Saharan African stock markets. The study was composed of three standalone essays. The rst essay, which investigated stock price co-movements and the volatility linkages between selected Sub-Saharan African markets and the key developed markets, used the Johansen cointegration test, the VECM and the GARCH models for the sample period 2 January 2009 { 31 December 2016. The second essay, examining the e ect of nancial liberalization on the development of stock markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, employed the Bayesian VAR for the sample period 1975Q1 { 2014Q4. Lastly, the third essay, which investigated the determinants of liquidity levels in Sub-Saharan African stock markets employed the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive model for the sample period 2 January 2009 { 31 December 2016.This study aimed at contributing to the already existing literature by focusing on analysing four key stock markets in the region, namely the Nigerian Stock Exchange, the Kenyan Securities Exchange.
The economic impact of FinTech in the South African banking industry: A case of digital disruption
(University of the Western Cape, 2019) Mungai, Kinyanjui; Bayat, Amiena
The Fourth Industrial Revolution has provided new opportunities to tackle problems in health, education, transport and many other sectors. In the financial sector, new financial technology (FinTech) is providing new ways of tackling the problem of financial exclusion. The uptake of cell phones has enabled financial service providers (FSPs) to expand into areas where the most vulnerable have hitherto been outside the reach of the banking agency model. This has ultimately allowed previously financially excluded individuals to have access to bank accounts. Through SMACT (Social Media, Mobile, Analytics, Cloud and the Internet of Things) technologies, FSPs are able to collect new types of data such as call detail record data and mobile app data which have been leveraged globally to enable the emergence of M-Pesa in Kenya, the WeChat payments module in China and KakaoBank, South Korea’s first online-only bank. The common thread in these innovations is that these are telecommunications company-led business models that have encroached into the area of finance. Such digital disruption has happened in South Africa but little is understood about how inclusive digital financial services are in the South African context. Moreover, what are the barriers to further financial inclusion, given that South Africa has significantly high bank account uptake rates? What role can the Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies have in breaking those barriers and reaching the lower-income population that has largely been mis-sold financial products that were created for the middle to upper-income population? This study sought to investigate how the diffusion of SMACT technology has contributed to financial inclusion in the South African financial services sector. The study made use of a mixed methods approach to answer this research question. Finscope data from 2012 to 2015 was used as the data source for the quantitative section and key informant interviews as the source of data for the qualitative section. The study found that roughly 80% of adults in South Africa are financially included through formal banks. Despite the near 100% uptake rates of cell phones across all income groups, proximity to an ATM or bank branch still significantly determined whether an individual accessed formal financial services. The study also found that ATM withdrawal, store withdrawal and internet banking were infrequently utilised by lower-income adults. In terms of internet banking and digital financial services in general, financial products, especially digital credit, do not appear to be well aligned with the needs of the lower-income consumer. The mismatch of financial products and the needs of lower-income consumers is further worsened by poor financial literacy levels in South Africa, especially among lower-income consumers. The study concludes that more needs to be done to increase economic inclusion, digital inclusion and financial inclusion for the lower-income population in South Africa. While consumer protection and transparency are well covered in the regulatory and legislative framework to which FSPs by and large adhere, a more inclusive and sustainable financial sector will only exist if product fit, affordability, financial literacy and convenience issues are addressed. This should happen in an enabling environment where ICT infrastructure benefits all, interoperability of digital financial services is reached and a regulatory framework more focused on financial inclusion is in place.
Bureaucracy, law and power - water allocation for productive use: Policy and implementation, a case study of black emerging farmers in the Breede Gour i t z Water Management Area in theWestern Cape,South Africa, 2005-2017
(University of the Western Cape, 2019) Williams, Sandra Elizabeth; Ruiters, Gregory
This study examines the problems of implementing water allocation policy in the context of the local state bureaucracy as well as the specific experiences of local black emerging farmers in the Breede Gouritz Water Management Area. This study used qualitative research methods and is based on many hours of interviews and observing bureaucrats and stakeholders at the receiving end of the bureaucratic business process of water allocation. It is not only concerned with the physical and technical aspects of access but explores how the different role players interact, navigate, shape, frame and manage challenges to gain access to and control water for productive use. The actual experiences and understandings of the stakeholders in their own contexts when engaging with the access to water are crucial to gain a comprehensive understanding and insight into the influence of bureaucracy and power relations. This thesis therefore maps the confusions and incapacities and shows that even though the South African laws are based on the best international frameworks, they fail, as they do not sufficiently address the unique environment and landscape. Existing scholarship has not adequately researched local bureaucratic power. At the coalface of implementation, bureaucrats make up their own rules to cope with rapid policy churning. Combined with existing power relations, policy implementation and policy direction is steered towards different and unintended trajectories, making transformation a challenge to achieve. Consequently, my main finding is that there have been constant and rapid legislative and policy changes but they have simply added to the confusion and instability.
Essays on savings in South Africa
(University of the Western Cape, 2019) Kasongo, Atoko; Sheefeni, Johannes. P.
Savings is essential for boosting economic growth. Low savings in a country will have negative consequences for both investment and economic growth. South Africa has continued to expe rience declining saving rates and in recent years, accompanied by declining economic growth. The study evaluated savings in South Africa by decomposing it into household saving, cor porate saving and public saving. The focus was to investigate the determinants of household savings, corporate and public savings. In addition to examining the determinants of savings, the research has also analysed the saving-investment relationship for South Africa. The study used a Bayesian vector auto regressive model to investigate the determinants of household sav ing from 1980Q1 to 2017Q4. The results of the investigation on household saving showed that GDP, inﬂation rate, and ﬁnancial deepening determine household saving in South Africa. The Bayesian VAR was also used to identify the determinant of budget deﬁcit between 1980Q1 to 2017Q and found Real GDP, inﬂation rate, total government debt, investment by general government and the inﬂation rate to be determinants. The Blundel-Bond Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) was used to investigate the determinants of corporate saving in form of cash holding for 80 non-ﬁnancial ﬁrms listed on the JSE between 2007 and 2017. The results showed leverage, cash ﬂow, debt maturity and previous amounts of cash holding to have signiﬁcant eﬀect on cash holding in SA. Lastly, the study examined the saving-investment nexus for South Africa using yearly data from 1980 to 2016. Using the Autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) and the Error Correction Model, (ECM), the study found a cointegrating relationship between domestic saving and domestic investment. It further found a positive relationship between domestic saving and domestic investment in both the short and long run. Causality analysis showed a unidirectional causality from domestic saving to domestic investment.

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