Research Articles (Statistics & Population Studies)
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Item The perceptions and experiences of facility managers in the implementation of safer conception services in public health care facilities(Routledge, 2024) Lelaka, Constance Matshidiso; Ojoniyi, Olaide OlawumiSafer Conception Services (SCS) refers to the provision of a package of care for individuals of reproductive age who are affected with HIV to have safe and healthy pregnancies. South Africa has one of the highest HIV burdens in the world, yet limited availability of SCS. Therefore, this study investigated healthcare managers’ response to an implementation project piloting SCS integration into primary healthcare services in Johannesburg. As part of the implementation study, data was collected from six facility healthcare managers using In-Depth interviews between November 2017 - September 2018. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis. The following four (4) themes emerged: positive response to the implementation of SCS, capacity building, the impact of SCS, and the need to scale up SCS. The results suggested that providers engaged saw value in the implementation of SCS. The results further suggest that there was an openness, willingness, cheerful outlook, and support to make SCS more widely available; however, streamlined processes are important to ensure feasibility. Continuous training is necessary to routinize implementation and ensure adequate coverage of services. Available guidelines should be translated into training programs and more initiative-taking policies to support the scale-up of this essential service.Item Beyond academia: a case for reviews of gray literature for science-policy processes and applied research(Elsevier, 2024) Yoshida, Yuki; O'Farrell, Patrick; Sitas, NadiaGray literature is increasingly considered to complement evidence and knowledge from peer-reviewed literature for science-policy processes and applied research. On the one hand, science-policy assessments need to consider a diversity of worldviews, knowledge types and values from a variety of sectors and actor groups, and synthesize policy-relevant findings that are salient, legitimate and credible. On the other hand, practitioners and scholars conducting applied research are affected by the time lag and biases of academic publication processes. Gray literature holds diverse perspectives informative for science-policy processes as well as practical evidence unfiltered by commercial publication processes. However, its heterogeneity has made it challenging to access through conventional means for a literature review. This paper details one endeavor within the Values Assessment of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) to review gray literature using Google’s Programmable Search Engine. In the absence of a standardized approach, we build on the limited experiential knowledge base for reviewing gray literature and report on the potential applicability of our strategy for future reviews. Gray literature review results contrast findings of our parallel review of academic literature, underlining the importance of mobilizing different knowledge bases in science-policy assessments, evidence-based practices, and applied research.Item How many random observations are needed for good phase coverage of a periodic source?(Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 2024) Koen, ChrisThe specific problem considered is the number of radial velocity measurements required to obtain good estimates of physical parameters of binary star. It is assumed that observations are made at random binary phases. The loss of information due to poor phase coverage is explored, and a suggested limit on the largest acceptable gap introduced. The statistical distribution of maximum gap lengths can then be used to specify the minimum number of velocity measurements to obtain good phase coverage with a specified confidence limit. The effects of non-zero orbital eccentricity are discussed, as are the ramifications of having multiple binary targets. The theory is also applicable to the characterisation of the radial velocity curves induced by exoplanets on their host stars, provided that the periods and eccentricities are known (from e.g. transit observations)Item Examining the Influence of Socio-Economic and Demographic Transformation on Employment In the Informal Sector From 2017 To 2020(Sage, 2024) Susuman, Sathiya A.; Mkulisi, Sibusisiwe NatarshThis study explored the impact of socio-demographic changes on informal sector employment in South Africa from 2017 to 2020. Utilizing data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), descriptive statistics and logistic regression were employed to analyze relationships between age, gender, ethnicity, marital status, and education within the informal workforce. The results revealed significant shifts in employment patterns, particularly affecting youth and marginalized groups. The findings emphasize the vital role of socio-demographic factors in shaping the informal sector and highlight the need for targeted policies to support vulnerable populations and improve their economic opportunities in a fluctuating labor market.Item Covid-19 demography in France and South Africa: a comparative study of morbidity and mortality in 2020–2022(Public Library of Science, 2024) Garenne, Michel; Stiegler, NancyBackground Covid-19 epidemics raged around the world in years 2020–2022. The dynamics of the epidemics and their mortality varied by country depending on prevention, treatments, vaccination and health status of the population. Objective The study compares Covid-19 morbidity and mortality in South-Africa and in France, two countries with similar population size and with reliable reporting systems, in order to better understand the dynamics and impacts of the epidemics and the effects of health policies and programs. Data and methods Data on cases, deaths, hospitalizations, vaccinations were drawn from national statistics. Published data on cases and deaths were corrected for undercount. Results Results show a different epidemiology in the two countries in the first three years of the epidemic (2020–2022). Incidence was higher in South Africa, and some 44% more people were infected by December 2022 than in France. Mortality and case-fatality were also higher in South Africa despite a favourable age structure. The age pattern of mortality showed higher values in South Africa among the young adults. Young women appeared somewhat disadvantaged in South Africa. Lastly, vaccination appeared to have had no effect on incidence, but a large effect on case-fatality in France. Conclusions Despite about the same population size and the same crude death rate at baseline, South Africa exhibited more cases and more deaths from Covid-19 over the 2020–2022 period. Prevention strategies (lockdown and vaccination) appear to have had large impacts on morbidity and mortality.Item A high incidence of serious life-threatening cardiovascular medical encounters during a marathon (2014–2019) calls for prevention strategies: SAFER XL(Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2024) Jordaan, Esmè; Green, Darren; Sewry, Nicola; Derman, WayneObjective: The aim of this study was to determine the incidence and nature (severity and type by organ system and specific diagnosis) of all medical encounters (MEs), including serious/life-threatening MEs (SLMEs) during a South African road marathon. Methods: This descriptive study was a retrospective analysis of data collected over 6 years at the Cape Town Marathon from 2014 to 2019, which included 40 446 starters. All MEs were collected and described as per the consensus statement for mass community-based sporting events. Incidences (I; per 1000 starters; 95% CI) are described for all MEs, SLMEs, and by organ system and specific diagnosis. Results: The incidence of all MEs was 8.7 (95% CI: 7.8–9.6) per 1000 starters. The largest contributor to all MEs, by organ system affected, was cardiovascular-related, with an incidence of 1.8 (95% CI: 1.4–2.2), where exercise-associated postural hypotension was the most common specific diagnosis (I = 1.3; 95% CI: 1.0–1.7). The incidence of all SLMEs was 1.0 (95% CI: 0.7–1.4) making up 11.7% (41/350) of all MEs. The incidence of SLMEs by organ system was highest in the cardiovascular system (I = 0.4; 95% CI: 0.3–0.7), with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) (I = 0.2; 95% CI: 0.1–0.4) the most common specific diagnosis. There were no sudden cardiac deaths (SCD) nor sudden cardiac arrests (SCA). Conclusion: There was a high proportion of cardiovascular-related medical encounters, as well as SLMEs. We recommend that event organizers and race medical directors investigate prevention strategies to mitigate against risk of SLMEs, specifically acute cardiovascular SLMEs.Item Healthy environments for athletes (heart): environmental conditions along a 90 km ultra‑marathon event, South Africa(International Journal of Biometeorology, 2024) Havenga, Henno; Jordaan, Esme; Gharbi, DorraThis paper provides an overview of the HEAT (Healthy Environments for AthleTes) project, which aims to understand the impact of environmental conditions on athlete health and performance during major sporting events such as long-distance running, cycling, and triathlons. In collaboration with the SAFER (Strategies to reduce Adverse medical events For the ExerciseR) initiative, the HEAT project carried out a field campaign at the 2022 Comrades Marathon in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. The measurement campaign deployed seven weather stations, seven PM2.5 monitors and one spore trap along the 90 km route to capture spatially representative measurements of complex micro-climates, allergenic aerospora, and particulate matter exposure. The results indicate that runners were exposed to moderate risk heat stress conditions.Item An examination of the mortality rate associated with teenage pregnancy in South Africa(SAGE Publications Ltd, 2024) Sithole, Tronic; Appunni, Sathiya SusumanThis study investigates factors contributing to teenage pregnancy in South Africa and their impact on maternal mortality. Twenty participants were purposively sampled for one-on-one interviews using a mixed-methods and descriptive study design. SPSS software analysed the data, revealing reduced risk factors through educational policies. Teenage mortality rates from pregnancy and maternal health issues are lower than the rates in adults, with high blood pressure, abortion and injuries being the leading causes of adolescent death. The study emphasises a significant public health concern in South Africa, influencing women’s life expectancy due to socioeconomic barriers and insufficient awareness of danger signs, urging prioritised policies and programmes.Item The factors determining female unemployment in South Arica: Evidence from the 2021 labour force survey(Union for African Population Studies, 2024) Mfubu, Anele; Philomene, NsengiyumvaThe persistent high unemployment confronting South Africa, in particular among women continues to be a cause of concern. The study set out to look at the factors driving female unemployment in South Africa in an attempt to contribute to efforts to find a solution to the problem of female unemployment. This study estimated the prevalence of female unemployment and identified its predictors in South Africa. Quarterly Labour Force Survey covering the fourth quarter of 2021 and a weighted sample of 13322 women aged 15-64 years were used. The dependent variable of interest was unemployment, while the independent variables were the age, population group, marital status, level of education, province of residence and geographic type. The analysis was conducted at bivariate and multivariate levels. It was found that female unemployment rates are significantly influenced by factors that include level of education, women in youth age category, differed among population group and marital status. The female unemployment varied significantly among provinces of residence and geographic type, with the highest prevalence rates observed in Eastern Cape, KwaZulu Natal, Gauteng and Limpopo. The study further found high unemployment rate in urban areas while traditional areas had high rates of discouraged job seekers.Item Risk factors associated with a history of iliotibial band syndrome (hitbs) in distance runners: A cross-sectional study in 76 654 race entrants – a safer xxxiii study(Taylor and Francis Group, 2024) Jordaan, Esme Renette; Marais, Jandre; van Rensburg, Audrey JansenBackground: Despite the numerous health benefits of distance running, it is also associated with the development of ‘gradual onset running-related injuries’ (GORRIs) one of which is Iliotibial Band Syndrome (ITBS). Novel risk factors associated with a history of ITBS (hITBS) have not been described in a large cohort of distance runners. Objective: To identify risk factors associated with hITBS in distance runners. Design: Descriptive cross-sectional study. Setting: 21.1 km and 56 km Two Oceans Marathon races (2012–2015). Participants: 106 743 race entrants completed the online pre-race medical screening questionnaire. A total of 1 314 runners confirmed an accurate hITBS diagnosis. Methods: Selected risk factors associated with hITBS explored included: demographics (race distance, sex, age groups), training/running variables, history of existing chronic diseases (including a composite chronic disease score) and history of any allergy. Prevalence (%) and prevalence ratios (PR; 95% CI) are reported (uni- & multiple regression analyzes). Results: 1.63% entrants reported hITBS in a 12-month period. There was a higher (p < 0.0001) prevalence of hITBS in the longer race distance entrants (56 km), females, younger entrants, fewer years of recreational running (PR = 1.07; p = 0.0009) and faster average running speed (PR = 1.02; p = 0.0066). When adjusted for race distance, sex, age groups, a higher chronic disease composite score (PR = 2.38 times increased risk for every two additional chronic diseases; p < 0.0001) and a history of allergies (PR = 1.9; p < 0.0001) were independent risk factors associated with hITBS.