GIS-based assessment of sika deer (cervus nippon) habitat suitability and human conflict risk using integrated analytical hierarchy process-multi-criteria decision analysis

Abstract

This study employed geospatial techniques to determine habitat suitability for sika deer ( Cervus nippon ) and evaluated the risk of human-deer conflict (HDC) in the Hatase district of Taki Town, Japan. The assessment of deer habitat appropriateness and HDC risk involved a structured four-step approach: criterion selection, decision hierarchy development, expert ranking collection, and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for variable weight assignment. Habitat suitability was categorized into land factors (elevation, slope, land use, and agricultural land area) and environmental factors (proximity to rivers, total wetness index (TWI), land surface temperature (LST), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and precipitation). The risk of HDC was assessed using proximity (distance to deer occurrence, forests, fences, roads, and croplands) and exposure metrics (habitat suitability, population density, and settlement density). Insights were derived from ten experts in diverse fields. The results revealed that environmental factors played a more significant role than land-based parameters in determining habitat suitability for the species. Among these, NDVI was the most influential factor, followed by precipitation and land use. The risk assessment identified habitat suitability as the primary driver of HDC potential, with settlement and population density as notable secondary contributors. In the risk matrix, the exposure metrics substantially outweighed the proximity metrics. Spatial analysis of habitat suitability revealed a heterogeneous distribution, with moderate suitability covering approximately 45 % of the study area. The HDC risk assessment further highlighted conflict hotspots in the northern and eastern regions, where optimal deer habitats overlap with human settlements. The integration of these analyses provides a robust spatial framework for targeted conservation planning and the development of conflict mitigation strategies. These findings enhance our understanding of sika deer ecology within human-modified landscapes and provide practical guidance for wildlife management, particularly in regions experiencing intensified human–wildlife interactions due to evolving socioecological conditions.