Research Articles (Earth Sciences)

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Ccu2pdsnse4 and cu2pdsn(s,se)4 palladium-substituted kesterite nanomaterials for thin-film solar cells
(American Chemical Society, 2025) Nwambaekwe, Kelechi; Yussuf, Sodiq; Tshobeni, Ziyanda; Ikpo, Chinwe; January, Jaymi; Cox, Meleskow; Ekwere, Precious; Iwuoha, Emmanuel
Kesterites are being studied intensively as sustainable absorber materials for solar cell development. However, elements such as Zn and Cu exhibit antisite defects that function as charge traps and recombination centers that affect the light absorption and carrier transport efficiencies of kesterite solar cells. The substitution of Zn or Cu with other metals is one of the strategies used to improve the photovoltaic performance of kesterites. This study focuses on the preparation and photovoltaics of Cu2PdSnSe4 (CPTSe) and Cu2PdSn(S,Se)4 (CPTSSe) kesterite nanoparticles (containing Pd instead of Zn) by a modified solvothermal (polyol) microwave synthesis method. The nanomaterials exhibited a tetragonal kesterite crystal structure with polydispersed morphology and average crystallite sizes of 22 and 17 nm for CPTSe and CPTSSe, respectively. DAMMIF ab initio analysis of the small-angle X-ray scattering data determined the shape of CPTSe and CPTSSe nanomaterials to be ellipsoidal. Ultraviolet-visible (UV-vis) spectroscopy revealed red-shift absorption properties, with bandgap energy values of 1.13 eV (CPTSe) and 1.20 eV (CPTSSe), thereby making them suitable light absorber materials for photovoltaic applications. Photoluminescence spectroscopy characterization confirmed the attenuation of defect concentrations in CPTSe and CPTSSe compared to the Zn analogue, which positively impacts the charge-carrier transport and recombination properties. A preliminary test of the materials in superstrate photovoltaic cell devices yielded power conversion efficiency values of 1.32% (CPTSe) and 3.5% (CPTSSe). The CPTSe- and CPTSSe-based photovoltaic devices maintained ∼70% mean open-circuit voltage (Voc), which is a significant improvement over the ∼20% Voc retained by Zn-based kesterites after 24 days.
Spatiotemporal analysis of surface urban heat Island intensity and the role of vegetation in six major Pakistani cities
(Elsevier B.V., 2025) Dube, Timothy; Anees, Shoaib Ahmad; Mehmood, Kaleem
The Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon exacerbates thermal discomfort in urban areas and significantly contributes to urban overheating when combined with climate change. This study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns of Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity (SUHII) in six major cities of Pakistan, focusing on the interplay between urban expansion, vegetation cover, and SUHII. To quantify SUHII dynamics, the impact of urban sprawl and vegetation changes was analyzed. The study offers critical insights into the implications for urban planning and policymaking in Pakistan. Using remote sensing data from Landsat satellites, analyzed with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques, estimates of SUHII, urban expansion, and vegetation cover were derived. Specifically, imagery from Landsat-5 (2010−2013) and Landsat-8 (2014–2022), obtained from the US Geological Survey (USGS), was employed. Statistical analyses, including Pearson's correlation and linear regression, were conducted to assess relationships between these variables from 2010 to 2022. SUHII was found to increase annually by 0.18 °C in Islamabad and 0.19 °C in Peshawar, with corresponding urban expansion rates of 8.07 km2 (8967.75 pixels) and 1.67 km2 (1860.42 pixels) per year, respectively. Vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC) were inversely correlated with SUHII, explaining up to 50 % of the variance in Peshawar. However, weaker correlations in Lahore suggest the presence of additional factors influencing SUHII. A distinct spatial relationship between increased vegetation and cooler areas was observed. For instance, Islamabad has greater vegetation cover and cool zones over 41.5 km2. In contrast, Lahore's hot spots spanned 127.1 km2, compared to Abbottabad's 10.4 km2, underscoring the thermal impact of reduced vegetation. The findings emphasize the effectiveness of urban greening, particularly in Islamabad's neutral thermal regions, in mitigating SUHII. This study offers important insights for urban planners in developing sustainable, climate-resilient cities within similar urban contexts. While the results are specific to Pakistani cities, the role of vegetation in mitigating SUHII may hold broader relevance for urban planning strategies in comparable settings.
Derivation of allometric equations and carbon content estimation in mangrove forests of Malaysia
(Elsevier B.V., 2025) Dube, Timothy; Khan, Waseem Razzaq; Giani, Michele
Mangrove forests play a vital role in carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation, yet comprehensive data on their carbon storage capacity in Malaysia remain limited. This study investigated allometric relationships and carbon content in Malaysian mangrove forests, aiming to develop site species-specific allometric equations, determine carbon content in tree components, and assess total carbon stock. Research was conducted in four compartments of the Sg. Pulai Permanent Reserved Forest, representing a mixed-species mangrove stand. We measured 1403 trees across ten species, with Rhizophora apiculata identified as the dominant species. Using diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree height, we developed site species-specific allometric equations to estimate aboveground biomass. The total aboveground biomass ranged from 183.30 t ha⁻1 to 187.06 t ha⁻1 across the study area. We calculated the total carbon stock at 91.01 t C ha⁻1, incorporating measurements from trees below 5 cm in diameter, dead and downed wood, and litter. An economic valuation of carbon storage was conducted using two approaches: the social cost of carbon method estimated a value of USD 4054.76 per hectare. In contrast, the market price approach yielded USD 1064.34 per hectare. This study provides essential data for improving biomass and carbon stock estimation methods in Malaysian mangrove ecosystems. Our findings highlight these forests' economic and ecological importance, supporting their integration into climate change mitigation strategies and informing sustainable management and conservation policies for mangrove forests in Malaysia and similar regions.
Understanding the roles of climate change, land use and land cover change and water diversion project in modulating water- and carbon-use efficiency in Han River Basin
(Elsevier Ltd, 2024) Liu, Dedi; Yue, Feng; Xiong, Lihua
Water-use efficiency (WUE) and carbon-use efficiency (CUE) are critical indicators of ecosystem function and hydrologic processes, reflecting the water-carbon flux exchange rate. Climatic variables, land use and land cover change (LUCC) and water diversion project (WDP) have altered water-carbon cycle; however, their roles in modulating WUE and CUE remain uncertain. To explore these effects, a framework is proposed and Han River basin (HRB) in China is selected as a case study including the data sets from both remote sensing and in situ observations during 2000–2020. The process-based Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System model and a supervised machine learning model are applied to simulate the impacts of climatic variables, LUCC and WDP on WUE and CUE, which are conducted by designing four experiments. We find that no significant WUE and CUE trends attributed to contrasting trends in the dry (October to March) and wet (April to September) seasons. Temperature variations greatly affect WUE and CUE, with WUE decreasing in the wet season and increasing in the dry season due to minimum temperature changes. LUCC has litter impacts on WUE and CUE changes. From 2014 to 2020, the middle route of the South-to-North WDP decreased WUE by 0.22 gCkg−1H2O in the middle-low HRB's wet season, slightly affecting CUE. Seasonal CUE was stable, with the largest decrease of 0.04 in the upper HRB during the wet season. The WDP also increased WUE sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures, while CUE sensitivities remained constant. Our case study has proven that the proposed framework is an effective way to understand the roles of climate change and WDP in modulating WUE and CUE.
Understanding dominant hydrological processes and mechanisms of water flow in a semi-arid mountainous catchment of the Cape Fold Belt
(Elsevier Ltd, 2025) Jumbi, Faith; Mazvimavi, Dominic; Glenday, Julia
Improving our understanding of streamflow characteristics, water storage, and dominant flowpaths in mountainous regions is important as mountains play a vital role in delivering water to lowlands, particularly in semi-arid areas. This work characterized water sources, flowpaths, and streamflow characteristics in the semi-arid, mountainous Kromme catchment in Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Precipitation, shallow and deep groundwater levels, and streamflow data were analysed to identify patterns that indicate the occurrence and/or dominance of certain processes, responses, and flowpaths. Results of the study demonstrated how the catchment responds to rainfall events across seasons and rainfall intensities. Steep and rocky areas that make up much of the catchment contributed to significant flood peaks after high-intensity storms. Quick and slow responses in flow after rainfall events indicated the dominance of both surface and subsurface flowpaths respectively. Furthermore, surface and subsurface flows were significant in recharging the floodplain alluvial aquifer as well as maintaining streamflow during dry periods. Average annual runoff coefficients were low (0.09), which implied large evapotranspiration (ET) withdrawals from dominant flowpaths and/or storage in inactive groundwater. The Kromme catchment has a sizeable floodplain with large alluvial aquifers, which make significant contributions to catchment storage and outflows. Overall, the catchment streamflow was sustained by baseflow (for ∼50% of the time).
Understanding the spatio-temporal distribution of bush encroachment in savannah rangelands, South Africa
(Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2024) Maphanga, Thabang; Shoko, Cletah; Sibanda, Mbulisi
Bush encroachment threatens rangelands’ biodiversity and productivity, impacting savannah ecosystems based on location, management practices, and factors like erratic rainfall, climate change, and environmental variability. Considering these challenges, this study therefore seeks to evaluate bush encroachment changes over-time (1992–2022) in the Southern part of Kruger National Park and surrounding communities of South Africa. The study estimated the proportion and extent of encroacher plants in relation to native bush species. To achieve this objective, bioclimatic variables, and a digital elevation model in conjunction with the Random Forest model were utilized. Classified satellite imageries achieved an overall accuracy of 72 and 93%, respectively. A gradual increase in bush encroachment was observed from 41,947 hectares (ha) (3.4%) in 1992 to 61,225 ha (10%) in 2022. Additionally, this study observed a decline in the spatial extent of native plant species by 178,163.4 ha, while invasive species have expanded by 44,022.17 ha from 1992 to 2022 wet season.
Advancements in remote sensing technologies for accurate monitoring and management of surface water resources in Africa: an overview, limitations, and future directions
(Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2024) Sigopi, Maria; Dube, Timothy; Shoko, Cletah
This review presents a comprehensive examination of recent advancements in utilizing multi-date satellite data to analyze spatial and temporal variations in seasonal and inter-annual surface water dynamics within arid environments of Africa. Remote sensing offers continuous, precise, and long-term datasets for surface water research. Various sensors with differing spatial resolutions are discussed, with high-resolution multispectral sensors providing superior spatial resolution but at higher costs. Conversely, dual-sensor approaches, incuding optical sensors (Sentinel-2 and Landsat), radar satellites (Sentinel-1 and RADARSAT) and UAVs were investigated. The review further examines the efficiency and applicability of traditional algorithms such as the modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI), normalized difference water index (NDWI), and automated water extraction index (AWEI) in detecting and delineating surface water resources. Additionally, machine learning (ML) algorithms, including support vector machines (SVM), Random Forest (RF), deep learning and emerging methodologies like recurrent tranformer networks, have been explored. Therefore, we recommend that future research endeavours focus on leveraging high-resolution satellite imagery and integrating physical models with deep learning techniques, artificial intelligence, and online big data processing platforms to improve surface water mapping capabilities.
An assessment of long-term and large-scale wetlands change dynamics in the Limpopo transboundary river basin using cloud-based earth observation data
(Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 2024) Gxokwe, Siyamthanda; Dube, Timothy; Mazvimavi, Dominic
Significant progress has been made in monitoring and assessing the effects of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on wetland extent. However, our understanding of wetland within the transboundary basins has been limited by the scarcity of available data on their dynamic changes over time. This study aimed to address this gap by analyzing the long-term and large-scale spatio-temporal extent of wetland in the Limpopo transboundary river basin (LTRB) over a 20-year period (2000–2020). To achieve this, we utilized the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud-computing platform and various remotely sensed data. The study had two primary objectives; (1) to examine LULC changes over time using machine learning algorithms applied to multisource remotely sensed data in GEE, and (2) to assess the relationship between LULC changes and the extent of wetlands in the basin. A total of nine land cover classes were identified, including shrublands, croplands, bare-surface, wetlands, sparse vegetation, tree cover, built-up areas, and grasslands. Shrublands covered 76–82% of the LTRB. On the other hand, wetlands and sparse vegetation were the least dominant, with proportions ranging from 0.3 to 2%. The overall accuracy of the classification results was within acceptable ranges, ranging from 77 to 78%. The study further revealed a continuing decline in wetlands extent and sparse vegetation, with average rates of 19% and 44%, respectively. Conversely, shrublands, croplands, and tree cover showed an increase, with average rates of 0.4% and 12.4% respectively. A significant finding was the replacement of a substantial portion (40%) of wetland areas with built-up areas, indicating that urban expansion is a major driver of wetland shrinkage in the study area. These results provide valuable insights into the declining extent of wetlands in the LTRB. Such findings are crucial for environmental management efforts, as they provide information on which wetlands should be prioritized when implementing strategies to prevent the negative impacts of LULC changes on wetlands in the area. Therefore, contributing towards achieving sustainable development goals relating to freshwater ecosystems protection and management.
Using UAV multispectral photography to discriminate plant species in a seep wetland of the fynbos biome
(Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 2024) Musungu, Kevin; Dube, Timothy; Smit, Julian
Wetlands harbour a wide range of vital ecosystems. Hence, mapping wetlands is essential to conserving the ecosystems that depend on them. However, the physical nature of wetlands makes fieldwork difficult and potentially erroneous. This study used multispectral UAV aerial photography to map ten wetland plant species in the Fynbos Biome in the Steenbras Nature Reserve. We developed a methodology that used K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithms to classify ten wetland plant species using the preselected bands and spectral indices. The study identified Normalized green red difference index (NGRDI), Red Green (RG) index, Green, Log Red Edge (LogRE), Normalized Difference Red-Edge (NDRE), Chlorophyll Index Red-Edge (CIRE), Green Ratio Vegetation Index (GRVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI) and Red as pertinent bands and indices for classifying wetland plant species in the Proteaceae, Iridaceae, Restionaceae, Ericaceae, Asteraceae and Cyperaceae families.
Variation in soil water content and groundwater levels across three land cover types in a floodplain of the kromme catchment, South Africa
(Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 2024) Jumbi, Faith ; Glenday, Julia ; Mazvimavi, Dominic
Invasions of floodplains and riparian areas by alien woody species replacing predominantly herbaceous indigenous vegetation have altered the hydrological and ecosystem functioning in catchments. Although existing studies have examined changes in river flows following the establishment or clearing of alien woody vegetation, our understanding of impacts on soil water content and groundwater remains poor. Limited process knowledge restricts our capacity to reliably model and predict the impacts of land cover changes. As such, this work compared temporal variations in soil water content (SWC) and groundwater levels at three locations with different vegetation types: black wattle (Acacia mearnsii) trees, palmiet (Prionium serratum), and grass (dominated by Pennisetum clandestinum spp), within a floodplain site in the Kromme Catchment in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Soil water content and shallow groundwater levels (< 4 m below ground) were monitored from August 2017 to December 2019 using soil moisture probes and piezometers. Rainfall, vegetation type and antecedent conditions were identified as the major factors controlling observed responses. On average, soil water content and water retention were significantly higher (p < 0.05) at the palmiet site, whilst the wattle site had the lowest SWC among the three sites. Shallow groundwater levels were also higher at the palmiet and grass sites and lowest at the wattle site. Results showed the negative impacts of black wattle trees on SWC and groundwater levels. These results are crucial for improved quantitative predictive capacity which would allow for better catchment management, for example, informing water supply planning and guiding restoration programs focusing on alien plant clearing.
Personal factors influencing emergency evacuation decisions under different flash flood characteristics
(Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 2024) Zhang, Ruikang; Liu, Dedi; Xu, Yongxin
Emergency evacuation has received more attention as an effective tool of flash flood disaster prevention that calls for systematic thinking rooted in natural and social sciences. Although personal factors influencing emergency evacuation decisions (EED) after receiving a flood warning have been widely discussed, few studies have referred this issue to the flash flood characteristics. This study explored the personal factors influencing EED under different flash flood characteristics (i.e., the frequency, occurrence time, and severity of flash floods) through field survey data. Three typical flash flood characteristics in three towns were selected as case studies. An ordinary logistical model and path analysis were used to analyze the independent influence and influence process of the personal factors on evacuation intention under the three flash flood characteristics. The results showed that personalized risk perception and warning type consistently influenced evacuation intention regardless of the flash flood characteristics, while the independent influence of flood experience and reliance on hazard information on evacuation intention was varied with the flash flood characteristics. Perceived exposure influenced evacuation intention through the mediations of flood experience when there were high-frequency, recent, and loss-causing flash floods, and of risk perception when there were low-frequency, distant, and few-loss-causing flash floods.
The effect of diagenetic minerals on the petrophysical properties of sandstone reservoir: a case study of the upper shallow marine sandstones in the central Bredasdorp basin, offshore South Africa
(Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI), 2024) Magoba, Moses; Opuwari, Mimonitu; Liu, Kuiwu
The upper shallow marine sandstone reservoirs of the Barremian-to-Valanginian formation are the most porous and permeable sandstone reservoirs in the Bredasdorp basin and an important target for oil and gas exploration. There is a paucity of information on the reservoir characterization and effect of diagenetic mineral studies focusing on the upper shallow marine sandstone reservoirs in the central Bredasdorp basin; thus, there is a need to investigate the effect of diagenetic minerals and to characterize these reservoirs due to their high porosity and permeability. Datasets, including a suite of geophysical wireline logs, routine core analysis, geological well completion reports, description reports, and core samples, were utilized. A total of 642 core porosity measures, core water saturation, and core permeability data were used for calibration with the log-derived parameters, ranging in depth from 3615 m to 4259 m. Rock samples were prepared for diagenetic mineral analyses, such as thin sections and Scanning electron microscopy, for each well to investigate the presence of diagenetic minerals in the selected reservoir units. The petrophysical analyses showed the results of porosity, volume of clay, water saturation, and permeability, ranging from 9% to 27%, 8.6% to 19.8%, 18.9% to 30.4%, and 0.096 mD to 151.8 mD, respectively, indicating a poor-to-good reservoir quality. Mineralogical analyses revealed that micrite calcite, quartz cement, quartz overgrowth, and authigenic pore-filling and grain-coating clay minerals (illite–smectite and illite) negatively affected intergranular porosity.
Comprehensive analysis of land use and cover dynamics in djibouti using machine learning technique: A multi-temporal assessment from 1990 to 2023
(Elsevier B.V., 2024) Pandit, Santa; Dube, Timothy; Shimada, Sawahiko
Understanding land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics in semi-arid regions is vital for unraveling complex environmental processes and resource management. This study delves into the intricate interplay of land patterns and resource dynamics, offering indispensable insights into the environmental repercussions of these changes. The study aims to quantify land use categories in Djibouti's semi-desert region using remote sensing. It analyzes temporal changes and evaluates Random forest (RF) algorithms for land use classification. Through meticulous quantification and comprehensive temporal analysis, the research contributes significantly to remote sensing and environmental science by enhancing understanding of land use dynamics and informing sustainable land management practices. Leveraging machine learning supervised classification on the google earth engine (GEE) platform using lands at data spanning four time periods (1990, 2002, 2012, and 2023), alongside spectral indices and digital elevation model (DEM) data, our study achieves unprecedented insights. Our findings reveal a significant landscape transformation, delineating seven major land cover classes: mangroves, bushes, farmland, built-up areas, water bodies, barren land, and salt plains. With overall accuracy ranging from 89 % to 95 %, our assessments demonstrate significant changes in land use types over the studied period. Notably, mangroves, bushes, farmland, and salt areas witnessed declines, while built-up areas, water bodies, and barren lands expanded.
Assessing the seasonal water requirement of fully mature Japanese plum orchards: A systematic review
(Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI), 2024) Mashabatu, Munashe; Motsei, Nonofo; Jovanović, Nebojša; Dube, Timothy; Mathews, Ubaidullah; Nqumkana, Yolanda
Japanese plums have relatively high water requirements, which depend on supplementing rainfall volumes with accurately quantified irrigation water. There is a lack of knowledge on the seasonal water requirements of plum orchards. This gap in the literature poses an imminent threat to the long-term sustainability of the South African plum industry, which is particularly plagued by climate change and diminishing water resources. The systematic literature review conducted in this study aimed to provide a foundation for supporting water management in irrigated Japanese plum [Prunus salicina Lindl.] orchards. Seventeen peer-reviewed articles obtained from the literature were analyzed. Approximately 66% of the cultivars were cultivated under different regulated deficit irrigation regimes for water-saving purposes and to increase fruit quality. This review of our knowledge provided benchmark figures on the annual water requirements of Japanese plums. The full-year plum crop water requirements obtained from the literature ranged between 921 and 1211 mm a−1. Canopy growth, pruning and growing season length were the most common causes of differences in the water requirement estimates. Further research is required to measure the water requirement of plums from planting to full-bearing age and the response of plum trees to water stress, especially in the South African context.
Chlorophyll-a unveiled: unlocking reservoir insights through remote sensing in a subtropical reservoir
(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2024) Mpakairi, Kudzai Shaun; Muthivhi, Faith; Dondofema, Farai
Effective water resources management and monitoring are essential amid increasing challenges posed by population growth, industrialization, urbanization, and climate change. Earth observation techniques offer promising opportunities to enhance water resources management and support informed decision-making. This study utilizes Landsat-8 OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI satellite data to estimate chlorophyl-a (chl-a) concentrations in the Nandoni reservoir, Thohoyandou, South Africa. The study estimated chl-a concentrations using random forest models with spectral bands only, spectral indices only (blue difference absorption (BDA), fluorescence line height in the violet region (FLH_violet), and normalized difference chlorophyll index (NDCI)), and combined spectral bands and spectral indices. The results showed that the models using spectral bands from both Landsat-8 OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI performed comparably. The model using Sentinel-2 MSI had a higher accuracy of estimating chl-a when spectral bands alone were used. Sentinel-2 MSI’s additional red-edge spectral bands provided a notable advantage in capturing subtle variations in chl-a concentrations. Lastly, the –chl-a concentration was higher at the edges of the Nandoni reservoir and closer to the reservoir wall
Forsteritic olivine in EH (enstatite) chondrite meteorites: a record of nebular, metamorphic, and crystal-lattice diffusion effects
(Wiley, 2024) Huber, Matthew; McKibbin, Seann J; Hecht, Lutz; Makarona, Christina
The occurrence of forsteritic olivine in EH enstatite chondrites is indicative of bulk disequilibrium. In MgO-rich magmatic systems, forsterite can either crystallize as a liquidus phase or be produced during peritectic melting of enstatite. Because diffusion of divalent cations through forsterite is relatively rapid, it records peak melting (i.e., chondrule-forming events) and is also sensitive to subsequent metamorphism in the EH chondrite parent body. Here, we report the major and minor element geochemistry of olivine in EH chondrites across petrologic types 3 and 4. In all cases, olivine meets the technical definition of forsterite (>90 mole% Mg2SiO4). For unequilibrated EH chondrites, minor elements identify CaO-Al2O3-TiO2-rich (refractory forsterite), MnO-rich (“LIME” forsterite), and FeO-bearing (forsteritic olivine) endmember components, the latter with Cr2O3-rich and Cr2O3-poor varieties. At higher petrologic type, minor element concentrations become restricted and compositions approach pure forsterite, while grain sizes reduce strongly with peak metamorphic temperatures. These changes reflect diffusive equilibration with enstatitic groundmass and dissolution reaction with free silica. The global geochemical distribution of forsteritic olivine in EH chondrites is, perhaps unexpectedly, more similar to those in low-FeO type I chondrules and associated objects in carbonaceous chondrites (CCs), rather than equivalent objects in ordinary (H, L, LL), low-FeO (or HH), or Kakangari (K) chondrites.
Quantifying the influence of climate change on streamflow of Rietspruit sub-basin, South Africa
(IWA Publishing, 2024) Banda, Vincent Dzulani; Kanyerere, Thokozani; Dzwairo, Rimuka Bloodless
This study integrated climate projections from five global climate models (GCMs) into the soil and water assessment tool to evaluate the potential impact of climate alterations on the Rietspruit River sub-basin under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The model’s performance was evaluated based on the coefficient of determination (R2), percent bias (PBIAS), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), probability (P)-factor and correlation coefficient (R)-factor. Calibration results showed an R2 of 0.62, NSE of 0.60, PBIAS of 20, P-factor of 0.86 and R-factor of 0.91, while validation produced an R2 of 0.64, NSE of 0.61, PBIAS of 40, P-factor of 0.85 and R-factor of 1.22. Precipitation is predicted to increase under both RCPs. Maximum temperature is projected to increase under both RCPs, with a major increase in the winter months. Minimum temperatures are projected to decrease under RCP4.5 in the near (0.99 °C) and mid (0.23 °C) futures, while the far future is projected to experience an increase of 0.14 °C. Precipitation and temperature changes correspond to increases in streamflow by an average of 53% (RCP4.5) and 47% (RCP8.5)
Post-cratering melting of target rocks at the impact melt contact: observations from the vredefort impact structure, South Africa
(Elsevier B.V., 2024) Huber, Matthew S.; Kovaleva, Elizaveta I.; Zamyatin D.A.
Impact melt is generated following hypervelocity impact events. Emplacement of impact melt dikes, such as the Vredefort Granophyre Dikes, allow for this high temperature melt to come into contact with deeply-buried target rocks after the cratering process is completed. Our study analyzes the effects of this interaction by examining the direct contact between the Vredefort Granophyre and the granitic host at the Kopjeskraal and Lesutoskraal Granophyre Dikes using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy-dispersive spectrometry (EDS), electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), and X-ray micro-computed tomography (μCT). A several-mm-thick transition zone between the host rock and the impact melt is enriched in SiO2 and indicates preferential melting of feldspar and mica in the host rock by interaction with the impact melt. Immiscible droplets of newly-formed silicate melt migrated from the transition zone into the impact melt. We observe inundations of the impact melt along narrow fractures into the host rocks, which, in some cases, surround and incorporate fragments of the host rock into the melt body. We suggest three possible mechanisms by which components of the host rock can enter the impact melt: 1) fragmentation of the host rock prior to melt emplacement and subsequent entrainment into the melt; 2) inundations of melt around fragments of host rock at the contact, followed by incorporation of the host rock into the melt; 3) melting of the host rock and immiscible migration of melt fragments within the impact melt.
Selected driver variables for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change for the republic of Djibouti: a study from semi-arid region
(International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 2024) Pandit, Santa; Dube, Timothy; Shimada, Sawahiko
This study aims to integrate driver variables with a land use change model (LCM) to explore their impact on the natural environment within the context of land-use changes in the Republic of Djibouti, considering possible Business-as-usual scenarios. Secondary data from 1990 and 2012 on land use land cover (LULC) were analyzed, with a 2022 map generated by adopting the same method of secondary data used (random forest classification in Google Earth Engine (GEE)) for validation. Eight key driver variables were utilized to model plausible future land cover (2035) for Djibouti. Statistical outputs and change maps from the LCM were compared to gauge historical change estimates and simulated scenarios. Analysis from 1990 to 2022 highlights significant land use and cover changes spurred by urbanization, environmental factors, and economic development. Barren land and bushland dominated, while built-up areas and water bodies expanded notably. Urbanization, agriculture, and climate change contributed to vegetation degradation, with declines in mangroves and increases in built-up areas. Water bodies also expanded during this period. Projections from the 2035 LULC map anticipate further urban expansion, underscoring the need for sustainable land management practices.
Assessment of the impacts of water resources allocation on the reliability, resilience and vulnerability of the water–energy–food–society (WEFS) nexus system
(Elsievier, 2024) Liu Dedi; Zeng Yujie; Shenglian Guo
To ensure water, energy and food supply security in the future, examining resources shortage risks within the integrated management strategy of the water-energy-food-society (WEFS) nexus system under uncertainties is necessary. Reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) are the most popular criteria for quantifying risks. However, their current applications focus on individual systems and adopt constant resource shortage rate thresholds across different spatial scales. To consider the interconnections in the WEFS nexus system and reflect the spatial heterogeneities of resource shortage risks when estimating the RRV, this study proposed a framework for estimating the RRV of the WEFS nexus system under uncertainties through a WEFS nexus model integrating water resources allocation model. Water availability uncertainty was simulated using Monte Carlo simulation and inputted into the stochastic WEFS nexus model. The water, energy, and food shortage rates outputted from the WEFS nexus model were used to determine the RRV of the WEFS nexus system. The impacts of water resources allocation on the RRV of the WEFS nexus system were studied by investigating its response to different water resources allocation scenarios at the basin and operational zone scales.

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