Understanding climate change effects on the potential distribution of an important pollinator species, Ceratina moerenhouti (Apidae: Ceratinini), in the Eastern Afromontane biodiversity hotspot, Kenya
Loading...
Date
2023
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier
Abstract
Monitoring key pollinator taxa such as the genus Ceratina requires precise near real-time predictions to facilitate
better surveillance. The potential habitat suitability of Ceratina moerenhouti was predicted in the Eastern Afromontane
biodiversity hotspot (EABH) in Kenya using presence-only data, to identify their potential distribution
and vulnerability due to climate change. Bioclimatic, edaphic, terrain, land surface temperature, and land use
and land cover (LULC) variables were used as predictors. Three machine learning techniques, together with their
ensemble model, were evaluated on their suitability to predict current and future (the shared socioeconomic
pathways (SSPs), i.e., SSP245 and SSP585) habitat suitability. Predictors were subjected to variable selection
using the variance inflation factor resulting in a few (n = 9) optimum variables. The area under the curve (AUC)
and true skill statistic (TSS) were used for the accuracy assessment of the modeling outputs. The results indicated
that 30% and 10% of the EABH in Murang’a and Taita Taveta counties are currently suitable for C. moerenhouti
occurrence, respectively. However, future projections show a ±5% decrease in C. moerenhouti habitats in the two
counties. Further, the ensemble model harnessed the algorithm differences while the random forest had the
highest individual predictive power (AUC = 0.97; TSS = 0.96). Clay content, LULC, and the slope were the most
relevant variables together with temperature and precipitation. Integrating multi-source data in predicting
suitable habitats improves model prediction capacity. This study can be used to support the maintenance of
flowering plant communities around agricultural areas to improve pollination services.
Description
Keywords
Climate change, Biodiversity, Pollinator, Ceratina, Kenya
Citation
Mukundamago, M. et al. (2023). Understanding climate change effects on the potential distribution of an important pollinator species, Ceratina moerenhouti (Apidae: Ceratinini), in the Eastern Afromontane biodiversity hotspot, Kenya. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 130, 103387. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2023.103387