Time trends in Tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: An age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019

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dc.contributor.authorZou, Zhiyong
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Guangqi
dc.contributor.authorOkonji, Osaretin Christabel
dc.date.accessioned2022-10-03T11:59:01Z
dc.date.available2022-10-03T11:59:01Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractThere were 549,522 tuberculosis deaths across the BRICS in 2019, accounting for 39.3% of global deaths. Among HIV-negative populations, the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) of tuberculosis in BRICS remained far higher than that of high-income Asia Pacific countries, especially in India (36.1 per 100 000 in 2019, 95% UI [30.7, 42.6]) and South Africa (40.1 per 100 000 in 2019, 95% UI [36.8, 43.7]). China had the fastest ASMR reduction across the BRICS, while India maintained the largest tuberculosis death numbers with an annual decrease much slower than China’s (-4.1 vs -8.0%). Among HIV-positive populations, the ASMR in BRICS surged from 0.24 per 100 000 in 1990 to 5.63 per 100 000 in 2005, and then dropped quickly to 1.70 per 100 000 in 2019. Brazil was the first country to reverse the upward trend of HIV/AIDS-tuberculosis (HIV-TB) mortality in 1995, and achieved the most significant reduction (-3.32% per year). The HIV-TB mortality in South Africa has realised much progress since 2006, but still has the heaviest HIV-TB burden across the BRICS (ASMR: 70.0 per 100 000 in 2019). We also found unfavourable trends among HIV-negative middle-aged (35-55) adults of India, men over 50 in the HIV-negative population and whole HIV-positive population of South Africa, and women aged 45-55 years of Russia. China had little progress in its HIV-positive population with worsening period risks from 2010 to 2019, and higher risks in the younger cohorts born after 1980.en_US
dc.identifier.citationZou, Z. et al. (2022). Time trends in Tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: An age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019. eClinicalMedicine, 53, 101646. 10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101646en_US
dc.identifier.issn2589-5370
dc.identifier.uri10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101646
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10566/7999
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherElsevieren_US
dc.subjectTuberculosisen_US
dc.subjectHIVen_US
dc.subjectBRICSen_US
dc.subjectMortalityen_US
dc.subjectWorld Health Organization (WHO)en_US
dc.subjectPublic healthen_US
dc.titleTime trends in Tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: An age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019en_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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