Time trends in Tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: An age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019
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Date
2022
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier
Abstract
There were 549,522 tuberculosis deaths across the BRICS in 2019, accounting for 39.3% of global deaths.
Among HIV-negative populations, the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) of tuberculosis in BRICS remained
far higher than that of high-income Asia Pacific countries, especially in India (36.1 per 100 000 in 2019, 95% UI
[30.7, 42.6]) and South Africa (40.1 per 100 000 in 2019, 95% UI [36.8, 43.7]). China had the fastest ASMR reduction across the BRICS, while India maintained the largest tuberculosis death numbers with an annual decrease
much slower than China’s (-4.1 vs -8.0%). Among HIV-positive populations, the ASMR in BRICS surged from 0.24
per 100 000 in 1990 to 5.63 per 100 000 in 2005, and then dropped quickly to 1.70 per 100 000 in 2019. Brazil
was the first country to reverse the upward trend of HIV/AIDS-tuberculosis (HIV-TB) mortality in 1995, and
achieved the most significant reduction (-3.32% per year). The HIV-TB mortality in South Africa has realised much
progress since 2006, but still has the heaviest HIV-TB burden across the BRICS (ASMR: 70.0 per 100 000 in
2019). We also found unfavourable trends among HIV-negative middle-aged (35-55) adults of India, men over 50 in
the HIV-negative population and whole HIV-positive population of South Africa, and women aged 45-55 years of
Russia. China had little progress in its HIV-positive population with worsening period risks from 2010 to 2019, and
higher risks in the younger cohorts born after 1980.
Description
Keywords
Tuberculosis, HIV, BRICS, Mortality, World Health Organization (WHO), Public health
Citation
Zou, Z. et al. (2022). Time trends in Tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: An age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019. eClinicalMedicine, 53, 101646. 10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101646