Tracking the cost of flying: Empirical insights into airfare volatility and price variation in South Africa’s domestic market

Abstract

This study examines the price competitiveness of South Africa’s domestic airline market by analysing 2,277 published fares across five airlines and three major routes. The objective is to determine how airline type, route distance, and booking horizon influence airfare levels and variability. A quantitative longitudinal design was applied. Descriptive statistics, ANOVA, correlation analysis, and multiple regression were used to compare fare structures between low-cost and full-service carriers and across different booking horizons. The analysis reveals a mean airfare of USD 86.92 with substantial variation. Low-cost carriers consistently offered lower fares per kilometre than full-service carriers. Route distance emerged as a significant determinant of unit pricing, with shorter routes displaying higher costs per kilometre. Regression analysis confirmed that distance and airline type jointly explain a meaningful portion of the variation in airfares, while booking horizon exerted minimal influence. Full-service carriers exhibited greater fare volatility than low-cost carriers. The results indicate that structural and competitive factors, rather than booking timing, shape domestic airfare behaviour. The study contributes a longitudinal, airline-level comparison of domestic airfare structures based on published market data and offers insight relevant to pricing strategy, policy considerations, and consumer decision-making.