Assessing readiness for a register-based census: Institutional preconditions and evidence from Malawi

Abstract

There is scanty evidence on the readiness to implement register-based censuses in developing countries despite their continued global adoption. Using 30 key informant interviews and document review across Malawi’s statistical system, we assess the readiness to transition from traditional censuses and propose a Register-based Census Readiness Index (RCRI), which operationalises the UN framework by assigning 49 indicators to the eight preconditions: strategic vision, political will, legal framework, public support and confidentiality, collaboration with register holders, knowledge of administrative registers, unified identification, and institutional capacity. A four-point maturity scale is constructed, resulting in a RCRI of 50%, suggesting partially established foundations with substantial variations. Public support and confidentiality were strongest (88%), whereas NSO’s vision (13%), unified identification (47%), knowledge of registers and coordination (33%) were weak. Legal framework (61%), institutional capacity (56%) and political will (53%) were partially established. These findings demonstrate that Malawi is not positioned for an immediate fully register-based census, and elucidate the importance of indicator-based methodology in revealing uneven readiness usually obscured by broad qualitative taxonomy. We recommend a phased transition, anchored in long-term strategy, coordination, formalised data sharing, developed core registers, interoperable systems and sustained statistical capacity. The framework sets a basis for assessing readiness for register censuses in other low-and middle-income countries.