Magister Scientiae - MSc (Statistics and Population Studies)

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The AIDS transition: Impact of HIV/ AIDS on the demographic transition of black/ African South Africans by 2021
(University of Western Cape, 2004) Matanyaire, Sandra D.; Shell, R.C.-H.
The first two official AIDS cases were diagnosed in South Africa in 1982. During the same period of the 1980s, the black/ African population was experiencing an accelerated fertility decline, following a period of accelerated mortality decline. Demographers invoked the demographic transition theory to explain the observed mortality and fertility decline. According to the demographic transition theory, mortality and fertility rates would continue declining to low, post transitional levels with increasing modernization. The relatively higher prevalence of HIV/ AIDS estimated among black/ African South Africans is expected to alter their demographic transition. This research investigates the impact of HIV/ AIDS on the demographic transition of black/ Africans by 2021.
The AIDS transition: impact of HIV/AIDS on the demographic transition of black/African South Africans by 2021
(University of the Western Cape, 2004) Matanyaire, Sandra D.; Shell, Robert C.H.; Haldenwang, B.B.; Dept. of Statistics; Faculty of Science
The first two official AIDS cases were diagnosed in South Africa in 1982. During the same period of the 1980s, the black/African population was experiencing an accelerated fertility decline, following a period of accelerated mortality decline. Demographers invoked the demographic transition theory to explain the observed mortality and fertility decline. According to the demographic transition theory, mortality and fertility rates would continue declining to low, post transitional levels with increasing modernization. The relatively higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS estimated among black/African South Africans is expected to alter their demographic transition. This research investigated the impact of HIV/AIDS on the demographic transition of black/Africans by 2021.
Analyzing the relationship between the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Lesotho and manufacturing: 1997to 2007
(University of the Western Cape, 2009) Mota, Likese Angelinah; Latief, A.; Dept. of Statistics; Faculty of Arts
The study draws on secondary data from the Bureau of Statistics in Lesotho. Simple and multiple linear regression models techniques are used to analyze the relationship between the GDP of Lesotho and the GDP of manufacturing. The secondary data is analyzed using Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS) and Excel. The major finding is that there exists a strong positive linear relationship ( r = 0.986) between the GDP of Lesotho and the GDP of manufacturing. This means that every time the GDP of manufacturing increases the GDP of Lesotho does the same. Based on this finding, the study recommends that in order to improve, sustain and maintain the economic growth and to avoid further deterioration in the manufacturing industry, the manufacturing capacity must be strengthened for it to effectively deal with growing competition and rapid economic changes.
An application of factor analysis on a 24-item scale on the attitudes towards AIDS precautions using Pearson, Spearman and Polychoric correlation matrices
(University of the Western Cape, 2006) Abdalmajid, Mohammed Babekir Elmalik; Blignaut, Renette; Dept. of Statistics; Faculty of Science
The 24-item scale has been used extensively to assess the attitudes towards AIDS precautions. This study investigated the usefulness and validity of the instrument in a South African setting, fourteen years after the development of the instrument. If a new structure could be found statistically, the HIV/AIDS prevention strategies could be more effective in aiding campaigns to change attitudes and sexual behaviour.
An Application of Multiple Regression in Exchange Rate Arrangements
(University of the Western Cape, 2008) Ndiritu, Gachiri Charles; Kotze, D.; Dept. of Statistics; Faculty of Science
This project "An application of multiple regression in exchange rate arrangement" focused on the processes followed by different countries when choosing an exchange rate regime for currency stabilization. It analyses the consequences faced by emerging markets as a result of changes in volatility of developed countries’ currencies (American Dollar, Japanese Yen, EURO, British Pound and the Canadian Dollar).
Assessing the effect of imbalance correction through oversampling in the prediction of injury prevalence in distance runners
(University of the Western Cape, 2023) Ngoto, Simcengile; Luus, Retha
Prediction of injury prevalence in distance runners
Assessing the high-risk behaviour of first year students entering the University of the Western Cape
(University of the Western Cape, 2007) Abels, Melissa Dione; Blignaut, Renette; Doctor, V; Dept. of Statistics; Faculty of Science
The motivation of this study is to assess the high risk behaviors that contribute to the spread of HIV and AIDS among the youth. The most influential high risk behaviours that contribute to the spread of HIV and AIDS are unprotected sexual intercourse and having more than one sexual partner.The population for this study includes all full time first year students who registered for the first time in 2006 that attended the orientation week. A stratified, sequential random sample was drawn from the students attending the orientation.
Assessing the high-risk behaviour of first year students entering the University of the Western Cape
(University of the Western Cape, 2007) Abels, Melissa Dione; Blignaut, R. J; Doctor, H. V
Globally, new HIV infections are heavily concentrated among the youth, i.e., persons aged 15-24 years old (UNAIDS, 2006b). In South Africa, the estimated national HIV prevalence was 10.4% among the youth in 2006 (Dorrington et a|.2006). The 2005-2006 national South African HIV rates ranged from 31.8o/oto39.3% among female youth and from 7.5oh to 10.1o/o among male youth (Dorrington et al. 2006; Pettifor et al. 2004; Shisana et al. 2005). UNAIDS (2006) stated that the future course of the HIV epidemic hinges on the high-risk behaviours the youth adept or maintain. The motivation for the study is to assess the high-risk behaviours that contribute to the spread of HIV and AIDS among the youth. The most influential high-risk behaviours that contribute to the spread of HIV and AIDS are unprotected sexual intercourse and having more than one sexual partner (Nattrass, 2004, Pettifor et al. 2004; Shisana et al. 2005; UYF & HSRC, 2005). Those who are in violent relationships, fear the threat of violence, which prevents them from insisting on condom use and this increases the risk of HIV infection (MacPhail & Campbell, 2001). Factors that leave the youth unable to set boundaries on when they want to have sex, what type of sex, or the use of contraception increase the risk of HIV infection. These factors include transactional sex, young age at first sex, cigarette smoking, alcohol use, drug use and suicidal behaviour (Aitken, 2005; Basile et al. 2006; Flisher et al. 1993c; Kauftnan & Stavrou, 2002; Pettifor et al. 2004; Shisana et aI.2005\. The population for this study included all full time first year students who registered at UWC for the first time in 2006 that attended the orientation week. A stratified, sequential random sample was drawn from the students attending the orientation. The Science Faculty Research Committee of UWC gave the consent to undertake the study. Informed consent was obtained from the 796 respondents and anonymity of their participation was ensured. The measuring instrument was a self-administered questionnaire. SAS package (SAS Institute Inc. 2004-2005) was used to clean the data and to do the analyses. Frequencies and percentages were provided for nominal and medians were provided for ratio scales. Rao-Scott Chi-square test was used to test the bivariate analysis between the high-risk behaviours. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to provide a clearer perspective on the effects of high-risk behaviours on non-condom use at last sex
A clustering smart phone users based on the digimiter survey and mobile application data
(University of the Western Cape, 2023) Kuse, Buhle; Brydon, Humphrey
Digimiter Survey
Comparing South African financial markets behaviour to the geometric Brownian Motion Process
(University of the Western Cape, 2008) Karangwa, Innocent; Visser, Chris; Dept. of Statistics
This study examines the behaviour of the South African financial markets with regards to the Geometric Brownian motion process. It uses the daily, weekly, and monthly stock returns time series of some major securities trading in the South African financial market, more specifically the US dollar/Euro, JSE ALSI Total Returns Index, South African All Bond Index, Anglo American Corporation, Standard Bank, Sasol, US dollar Gold Price , Brent spot oil price, and South African white maize near future. The assumptions underlying the Geometric Brownian motion in finance, namely the stationarity, the normality and the independence of stock returns, are tested using both graphical (histograms and normal plots) and statistical test (Kolmogorov-Simirnov test, Box-Ljung statistic and Augmented Dickey-Fuller test) methods to check whether or not the Brownian motion as a model for South African financial markets holds. The Hurst exponent or independence index is also applied to support the results from the previous test. Theoretically, the independent or Geometric Brownian motion time series should be characterised by the Hurst exponent of ½. A value of a Hurst exponent different from that would indicate the presence of long memory or fractional Brownian motion in a time series. The study shows that at least one assumption is violated when the Geometric Brownian motion process is examined assumption by assumption. It also reveals the presence of both long memory and random walk or Geometric Brownian motion in the South African financial markets returns when the Hurst index analysis is used and finds that the Currency market is the most efficient of the South African financial markets. The study concludes that although some assumptions underlying the rocess are violated, the Brownian motion as a model in South African financial markets can not be rejected. It can be accepted in some instances if some parameters such as the Hurst exponent are added.
The correlate between fertility and landholding among rural women in kenya: a multivariate analysis
(University of the Western Cape, 2013-05) Chenge, Violet Wambui; Appuni, Susman Sathiya
The present study is an understanding of the relationship that exists between landholding and the reproductive behaviour of rural women in Kenya. Traditional women have rights to cultivate land as well as control income from the resulting crop production but rarely have rights to allocate or alienate land. Men are the rightful owners of the land. When the rightful owner person passes away, the eldest son of the family automatically takes ownership of the land and subsequent care of the family. This period of land ownership supported high fertility rates. However, in current spaces this practice has changed. Land is scarce and people are opting for other alternatives of limiting their family sizes. The aim of the study is to address the dissimilar changes of fertility behaviour among women in rural Kenya. Particularly, landholdings and low fertility behaviour, focusing on how this change happened. Data used is from the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) 2008/2009. We acquire a representative sample size of 6761 women age 15-49 from the data. A multiplicity of statistical parameters like chi-square test, p-value, logistic regression, and multivariate analysis are adopted. In this regard, the relationship that exists between fertility and landholdings leads to large family sizes. In addition, land decrease has lead to the search of alternatives such as education, employment, and increase in age at marriage. The introduction of these factors has promoted smaller family sizes. This study is immensely useful for the policy makers, planners and other interested stakeholders in population and development spheres in this juncture.
Determinants of female labour force participation in South Africa in 2008
(2009) Yakubu, Yakubu A.; Stiegler, Nancy
South Africa’s female labour supply increased substantially over almost the past two decades. Female labour force participation is an imperative indication of the extent to which females participate in the economic activities of any country. Female Labour Force Participation (FLFP) rates have gained interest among researchers and development specialists worldwide due to their significant contribution in measuring progress related to gender disparities across various economic settings. Amsden (1980) further posits that there has been an increase in women contribution to modern sector activities. Despite the advances in female educational attainment and the expansion of the market economy, FLFP rates are still low in comparison with the rates of their male counterparts. This study employs the Human Capital Theory (HCT), which postulates that the education of women is positively related to the likelihood of their labour force participation, in order to investigate quarterly dynamics in the labour force. This approach is an advancement of knowledge gained from previous studies such as Serumanga-Zake and Kotze (2004) and Ntuli (2004) who investigated the annual dynamics in FLFP. Investigating quarterly dynamics in FLFP is prudent as the market economy is very dynamic particularly at a point when the world economy is experiencing recession. Data for the study are extracted from the 2008 Quarterly Labour Force Survey conducted by Statistics South Africa. Logistic regression analysis modeling was employed with the dependent variable, FLFP, as a binary outcome. Other variables controlled in the analysis are gender, population group, age, marital status, education status, sector, main industry, main occupation and province. The results show that there is association between education status and FLFP status. Findings from this research are expected to contribute to the knowledge about trends in FLFP in South Africa and aid in planning of interventions aimed at improving the status of women as one of the critical steps in achieving the Millennium Development Goals.
Determinants of female labour force participation in South Africa in 2008
(University of the Western Cape, 2009) Yakubu, Yakubu A.; Stiegler, Nancy; Faculty of Science
This study employs the Human Capital Theory (HCT), which postulates that the education of women is positively related to the likelihood of their labour force participation, in order to investigate quarterly dynamics in the labour force. This approach is an advancement of knowledge gained from previous studies such as Serumanga-Zake and Kotze (2004) and Ntuli (2004) who investigated the annual dynamics in FLFP. Investigating quarterly dynamics in FLFP is prudent as the market economy is very dynamic particularly at a point when the world economy is experiencing recession. Data for the study are extracted from the 2008 Quarterly Labour Force Survey conducted by Statistics South Africa. Logistic regression analysis modeling was employed with the dependent variable, FLFP, as a binary outcome. Other variables controlled in the analysis are gender, population group, age, marital status, education status, sector, main industry, main occupation and province. The results show that there is association between education status and FLFP status. Findings from this research are expected to contribute to the knowledge about trends in FLFP in South Africa and aid in planning of interventions aimed at improving the status of women as one of the critical steps in achieving the Millennium Development Goals.
Development of a challenger price sensitivity model to improve Santam's new business optimisation framework
(University of the Western Cape, 2021) Engelke, Nina; Brydon, Humphrey
Estimation of Pareto Distribution Functions from Samples Contaminated by Measurement Errors
(University of the Western Cape, 2010) Kondlo, Lwando Orbet; Koen, Chris
Estimation of population distributions, from samples that are contaminated by measurement errors, is a common problem. This study considers the problem of estimating the population distribution of independent random variables Xi, from error-contaminated samples ~i (.j = 1, ... , n) such that Yi = Xi + f·.i, where E is the measurement error, which is assumed independent of X. The measurement error ( is also assumed to be normally distributed. Since the observed distribution function is a convolution of the error distribution with the true underlying distribution, estimation of the latter is often referred to as a deconvolution problem. A thorough study of the relevant deconvolution literature in statistics is reported. We also deal with the specific case when X is assumed to follow a truncated Pareto form. If observations are subject to Gaussian errors, then the observed Y is distributed as the convolution of the finite-support Pareto and Gaussian error distributions. The convolved probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the finite-support Pareto and Gaussian distributions are derived. The intention is to draw more specific connections bet.ween certain deconvolution methods and also to demonstrate the application of the statistical theory of estimation in the presence of measurement error. A parametric methodology for deconvolution when the underlying distribution is of the Pareto form is developed. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the parameters of the convolved distributions is considered. Standard errors of the estimated parameters are calculated from the inverse Fisher's information matrix and a jackknife method. Probability-probability (P-P) plots and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodnessof- fit tests are used to evaluate the fit of the posited distribution. A bootstrapping method is used to calculate the critical values of the K-S test statistic, which are not available. Simulated data are used to validate the methodology. A real-life application of the methodology is illustrated by fitting convolved distributions to astronomical data
Estimation of Pareto distribution functions from samples contaminated by measurement errors
(University of the Western Cape, 2010) Kondlo, Lwando Orbet; Koen, Chris; Faculty of Science
The intention is to draw more specific connections between certain deconvolution methods and also to demonstrate the application of the statistical theory of estimation in the presence of measurement error. A parametric methodology for deconvolution when the underlying distribution is of the Pareto form is developed. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the parameters of the convolved distributions is considered. Standard errors of the estimated parameters are calculated from the inverse Fisher’s information matrix and a jackknife method. Probability-probability (P-P) plots and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodnessof- fit tests are used to evaluate the fit of the posited distribution. A bootstrapping method is used to calculate the critical values of the K-S test statistic, which are not available.
Evaluation of computer-based tutorials at UWC: Perceptions, advantages and challenges
(University of the Western Cape, 2003) Jonas, Sbongile; Kotze, D.
This is an exploratory study that aims to find out how computer-based tutorials can be conducted effectively for large first year Statistics classes. The study focuses on the student's perceptions, advantages of being able to access tutorials anywhere, anytime and lastly the challenges of implementing the system. More specifically for the University of the Western Cape (UWC) environment, without sufficient staff, the effectiveness of learning in this initial stage is focused on the experience whereby students can do extensive problem-solving anytime and anywhere. Data were collected at UWC using first-year introductory Statistics students, during the first and the second semester. Structured questionnaires (self-completed) were used to measure student's perceptions and learning experiences. The results pointed to a positive overall perception towards computers and feelings about computers amongst all groups of first year students. The major advantage with these randomly generated computer-based tutorials is the fact that one could access the questions anytime, anywhere. The challenge now remains with educators to provide an environment where new methods of learning and delivering information can be accessed effectively.
Examining long-run relationships of the BRICS stock market indices to identify opportunities for implementation of statistical arbitrage strategies
(University of the Western Cape, 2012) Meki, Brian; Kotze, Danelle
Purpose:This research investigates the existence of long-term equilibrium relationships among the stock market indices of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). It further investigates cointegrated stock pairs for possible implementation of statistical arbitrage trading techniques.Design:We utilize standard multivariate time series analysis procedures to inspect unit roots to assess stationarity of the series. Thereafter, cointegration is tested by the Johansen and Juselius (1990) procedure and the variables are interpreted by a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Statistical arbitrage is investigated through the pairs trading technique.Findings:The five stock indices are found to be cointegrated. Analysis shows that the cointegration rank among the variables is significantly influenced by structural breaks. Two pairs of stock variables are also found to be cointegrated. This guaranteed the mean reversion property necessary for the successful execution of the pairs trading technique. Determining the optimal spread threshold also proved to be highly significant with respect to the success of this trading technique.Value:This research seeks to expand on the literature covering long-run co-movements of the volatile emerging market indices. Based on the cointegration relation shared by the BRICS, the research also seeks to encourage risk taking when investing. We achieve this by showing the potential rewards that can be realized through employing appropriate statistical arbitrage trading techniques in these markets.
Female unemployment in South Africa: insight from the 2021 labour force survey.
(University of the Western Cape, 2023) Mfubu, Anele; Nsengiyumva, Philomene
The study focused on female unemployment and aimed to establish whether or not there is a relationship between female unemployment and demographic characteristics, whether the currently unemployed have ever worked or not, their duration of unemployment and the reasons for not working. It utilized the existing dataset from Statistics South Africa's fourth-quarter of 2021 Labour Force Survey. The study suggested that there are differentials in female unemployment, according to demographic characteristics. More precisely the greatest share percentage of unemployed females in South Africa was found within 25-34 age group and who are single. Nonetheless, those within 15-24 most of them were found among those who have never worked before, while a high percentage share of those who have work experience was found in 55-64 age group.
Fertility in Nigeria and Guinea : a comparative study of trends and determinants
(University of the Western Cape, 2011) Osuafor, Godswill Nwabuisi; Stiegler, Nancy; Dept. of Statistics; Faculty of Arts
The present study was conceived to examine the trend and factors affecting fertility in Nigeria and Guinea. Fertility has declined by about nineteen percent in Nigeria between 1982 and 1999. In the same period it has declined by five percent in Guinea. The decline is observed in data from censuses and surveys. Studies have reported that fertility transition is in progress in most Sub-Sahara African countries (Bongaarts 2008; Guttmacher 2008), Nigeria (Feyisetan and Bankole 2002) and Guinea (measuredhs 2007). Studies and surveys done in some regions and among ethnic groups suggest that fertility is declining in Nigeria (Caldwell et al. 1992) and Guinea (measuredhs 2007). However, these studies and surveys are devoid of national representativeness as they are localized in specific regions or selected ethnic groups. Thus, they cannot be used as a national reference. The trend of the total fertility rate (TFR) from the three consecutive Demographic and Health Surveys in Nigeria did not show any meaningful decrease over time. In the same vein, no evidence of fertility decline was observed in Guinea from the Demographic and Health Surveys. The claim that fertility is declining in these two countries which assures the funding organizations that Family Planning programs are successful is beyond the scope of the present study. Based on Demographic and Health Surveys the claim that fertility is decreasing in Nigeria may be misleading, whereas in Guinea fertility has shown stability. This suggests that while the factors affecting fertility may be similar, their impacts differ from country to country.

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