Browsing by Author "Mukhtar, Abdulaziz Y. A."
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Item Modeling the impact of combined use of Covid Alert SA app and vaccination to curb Covid-19 infections in South Africa(Public Library of Science, 2023) Kinyili, Musyoka; Munyakazi, Justin B.; Mukhtar, Abdulaziz Y. A.The unanticipated continued deep-rooted trend of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona-virus-2 the originator pathogen of the COVID-19 persists posing concurrent anxiety globally. More effort is affixed in the scientific arena via continuous investigations in a prolific effort to understand the transmission dynamics and control measures in eradication of the epidemic. Both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical containment measure protocols have been assimilated in this effort. In this study, we develop a modified SEIR deterministic model that factors in alternative-amalgamation of use of COVID Alert SA app and vaccination against the COVID-19 to the Republic of South Africa’s general public in an endeavor to discontinue the chain of spread for the pandemic. We analyze the key properties of the model not limited to positivity, boundedness, and stability.Item Modeling the impact of combined use of Covid Alert SA app and vaccination to curb Covid-19 infections in South Africa(Public Library of Science, 2023) Kinyili, Musyoka; Munyakazi, Justin B.; Mukhtar, Abdulaziz Y. A.The unanticipated continued deep-rooted trend of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona-virus-2 the originator pathogen of the COVID-19 persists posing concurrent anxiety globally. More effort is affixed in the scientific arena via continuous investigations in a prolific effort to understand the transmission dynamics and control measures in eradication of the epidemic. Both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical containment measure protocols have been assimilated in this effort. In this study, we develop a modified SEIR deterministic model that factors in alternative-amalgamation of use of COVID Alert SA app and vaccination against the COVID-19 to the Republic of South Africa’s general public in an endeavor to discontinue the chain of spread for the pandemic. We analyze the key properties of the model not limited to positivity, boundedness, and stability. We authenticate the model by fitting it to the Republic of South Africa’s cumulative COVID-19 cases reported data utilizing the Maximum Likelihood Estimation algorithm implemented in fitR package.Item Modelling the effect of bednet coverage on malaria transmission in South Sudan(Public Library of Science, 2018) Mukhtar, Abdulaziz Y. A.; Munyakazi, Justin B.; Ouifki, Rachid; Clark, Allan E.A campaign for malaria control, using Long Lasting Insecticide Nets (LLINs) was launched in South Sudan in 2009. The success of such a campaign often depends upon adequate available resources and reliable surveillance data which help officials understand existing infections. An optimal allocation of resources for malaria control at a sub-national scale is therefore paramount to the success of efforts to reduce malaria prevalence. In this paper, we extend an existing SIR mathematical model to capture the effect of LLINs on malaria trans- mission. Available data on malaria is utilized to determine realistic parameter values of this model using a Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Then, we explore the parasite prevalence on a continued rollout of LLINs in three different settings in order to create a sub-national projection of malaria. Further, we calculate the model’s basic reproductive number and study its sensitivity to LLINs’ coverage and its efficacy. From the numerical simulation results, we notice a basic reproduction number, R0 , confirming a substantial increase of incidence cases if no form of intervention takes place in the commu- nity. This work indicates that an effective use of LLINs may reduce R0 and hence malaria transmission. We hope that this study will provide a basis for recommending a scaling-up of the entry point of LLINs’ distribution that targets households in areas at risk of malaria.Item To use face masks or not after Covid-19 vaccination? An impact analysis using mathematical modeling(Frontiers Media, 2022) Kinyili, Musyoka; Munyakazi, Justin B.; Mukhtar, Abdulaziz Y. A.The question of whether to drop or to continue wearing face masks especially after being vaccinated among the public is controversial. This is sourced from the efficacy levels of COVID-19 vaccines developed, approved, and in use. We develop a deterministic mathematical model that factors in a combination of the COVID-19 vaccination program and the wearing of face masks as intervention strategies to curb the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. We use the model specifically to assess the potential impact of wearing face masks, especially by the vaccinated individuals in combating further contraction of COVID-19 infections. Validation of the model is achieved by performing its goodness of fit to the Republic of South Africa’s reported COVID-19 positive cases data using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation algorithm implemented in the fitR package. We first consider a scenario where the uptake of the vaccines and wearing of the face masks, especially by the vaccinated individuals is extremely low.