Browsing by Author "Kinyili, Musyoka"

Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Mathematical modeling and impact analysis of the use of COVID alert SA app
    (AIMS Press, 2022) Kinyili, Musyoka; Munyakazi, Justin B; Mukhtar, Abdulaziz YA
    The human life-threatening novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona-virus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has lasted for over a year escalating and posing simultaneous anxiety day-by-day globally since its first report in the late December 2019. The scientific arena has been kept animated via continuous investigations in an effort to understand the spread dynamics and the impact of various mitigation measures to keep this pandemic diminished. Despite a lot of research works having been accomplished this far, the pandemic is still deep-rooted in many regions worldwide signaling for more scientific investigations. This study joins the field by developing a modified SEIR (SusceptibleExposed-Infectious-Removed) compartmental deterministic model whose key distinct feature is the incorporation of the COVID Alert SA app use by the general public in prolific intention to control the spread of the epidemic. Validation of the model is performed by fitting the model to the Republic of South Africa’s COVID-19 cases reported data using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation algorithm implemented in fitR package.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Modeling the impact of combined use of Covid Alert SA app and vaccination to curb Covid-19 infections in South Africa
    (Public Library of Science, 2023) Kinyili, Musyoka; Munyakazi, Justin B.; Mukhtar, Abdulaziz Y. A.
    The unanticipated continued deep-rooted trend of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona-virus-2 the originator pathogen of the COVID-19 persists posing concurrent anxiety globally. More effort is affixed in the scientific arena via continuous investigations in a prolific effort to understand the transmission dynamics and control measures in eradication of the epidemic. Both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical containment measure protocols have been assimilated in this effort. In this study, we develop a modified SEIR deterministic model that factors in alternative-amalgamation of use of COVID Alert SA app and vaccination against the COVID-19 to the Republic of South Africa’s general public in an endeavor to discontinue the chain of spread for the pandemic. We analyze the key properties of the model not limited to positivity, boundedness, and stability. We authenticate the model by fitting it to the Republic of South Africa’s cumulative COVID-19 cases reported data utilizing the Maximum Likelihood Estimation algorithm implemented in fitR package.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Modeling the impact of combined use of Covid Alert SA app and vaccination to curb Covid-19 infections in South Africa
    (Public Library of Science, 2023) Kinyili, Musyoka; Munyakazi, Justin B.; Mukhtar, Abdulaziz Y. A.
    The unanticipated continued deep-rooted trend of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona-virus-2 the originator pathogen of the COVID-19 persists posing concurrent anxiety globally. More effort is affixed in the scientific arena via continuous investigations in a prolific effort to understand the transmission dynamics and control measures in eradication of the epidemic. Both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical containment measure protocols have been assimilated in this effort. In this study, we develop a modified SEIR deterministic model that factors in alternative-amalgamation of use of COVID Alert SA app and vaccination against the COVID-19 to the Republic of South Africa’s general public in an endeavor to discontinue the chain of spread for the pandemic. We analyze the key properties of the model not limited to positivity, boundedness, and stability.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    To use face masks or not after Covid-19 vaccination? An impact analysis using mathematical modeling
    (Frontiers Media, 2022) Kinyili, Musyoka; Munyakazi, Justin B.; Mukhtar, Abdulaziz Y. A.
    The question of whether to drop or to continue wearing face masks especially after being vaccinated among the public is controversial. This is sourced from the efficacy levels of COVID-19 vaccines developed, approved, and in use. We develop a deterministic mathematical model that factors in a combination of the COVID-19 vaccination program and the wearing of face masks as intervention strategies to curb the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. We use the model specifically to assess the potential impact of wearing face masks, especially by the vaccinated individuals in combating further contraction of COVID-19 infections. Validation of the model is achieved by performing its goodness of fit to the Republic of South Africa’s reported COVID-19 positive cases data using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation algorithm implemented in the fitR package. We first consider a scenario where the uptake of the vaccines and wearing of the face masks, especially by the vaccinated individuals is extremely low.