Research Articles (Statistics & Population Studies)

Permanent URI for this collection

https://hdl.handle.net/10566/16127

Browse

Browsing by Author "Garenne, Michel"

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Covid-19 demography in France and South Africa: a comparative study of morbidity and mortality in 2020–2022
    (Public Library of Science, 2024) Garenne, Michel; Stiegler, Nancy
    Background Covid-19 epidemics raged around the world in years 2020–2022. The dynamics of the epidemics and their mortality varied by country depending on prevention, treatments, vaccination and health status of the population. Objective The study compares Covid-19 morbidity and mortality in South-Africa and in France, two countries with similar population size and with reliable reporting systems, in order to better understand the dynamics and impacts of the epidemics and the effects of health policies and programs. Data and methods Data on cases, deaths, hospitalizations, vaccinations were drawn from national statistics. Published data on cases and deaths were corrected for undercount. Results Results show a different epidemiology in the two countries in the first three years of the epidemic (2020–2022). Incidence was higher in South Africa, and some 44% more people were infected by December 2022 than in France. Mortality and case-fatality were also higher in South Africa despite a favourable age structure. The age pattern of mortality showed higher values in South Africa among the young adults. Young women appeared somewhat disadvantaged in South Africa. Lastly, vaccination appeared to have had no effect on incidence, but a large effect on case-fatality in France. Conclusions Despite about the same population size and the same crude death rate at baseline, South Africa exhibited more cases and more deaths from Covid-19 over the 2020–2022 period. Prevention strategies (lockdown and vaccination) appear to have had large impacts on morbidity and mortality.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Population dynamics of religious affiliations in Nigeria
    (University of the Western Cape, 2025) Garenne, Michel
    The study presents an overview on population dynamics of the two main religious affiliations in Nigeria: Christian and Muslim religions. The population of the two groups was estimated at 30-year intervals (1930, 1960, 1990, 2020). Data used for the reconstruction came from three population censuses and from ten demographic sample surveys. Population growth rates of Christians and Muslims were compared with estimates of net fertility derived from the same demographic surveys over the 1960 to 2020 period. Results were overall consistent and showed major trends over time: the rise of Christian religions and the fluctuations of Muslim religions as main affiliation, and as a consequence the apparent decline of African traditional religions. Between 1980 and 2010, both monotheist religions shared approximately half of the population. However, since 1995 the growth rate of the Muslim population became higher than that of the Christian population. In particular, population growth in the Northern part of the country, mainly Muslim, was outstanding. Recent trends could have serious implications in the future, and in particular could lead to demographic imbalance between the two groups, could raise serious environmental issues, especially in the North, and could have numerous political and social consequences.