An approach to developing a prediction model of fertility intent among HIV-positive women and men in Cape Town, South Africa: a case study

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dc.contributor.authorBai, Dan
dc.contributor.authorLeu, Cheng-Shiun
dc.contributor.authorMantell, Joanne E.
dc.contributor.authorExner, Theresa M.
dc.contributor.authorCooper, Diane
dc.contributor.authorHoffman, Susie
dc.contributor.authorKelvin, Elizabeth A.
dc.contributor.authorMyer, Landon
dc.contributor.authorConstant, Debbie
dc.contributor.authorMoodley, Jennifer
dc.date.accessioned2018-07-09T08:49:39Z
dc.date.available2018-07-09T08:49:39Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.description.abstractAs a ‘case-study’ to demonstrate an approach to establishing a fertility-intent prediction model, we used data collected from recently diagnosed HIV-positive women (N = 69) and men (N = 55) who reported inconsistent condom use and were enrolled in a sexual and reproductive health intervention in public sector HIV care clinics in Cape Town, South Africa. Three theoretically-driven prediction models showed reasonable sensitivity (0.70–1.00), specificity (0.66–0.94), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.79–0.89) for predicting fertility intent at the 6-month visit. A k-fold cross-validation approach was employed to reduce bias due to over-fitting of data in estimating sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve. We discuss how the methods presented might be used in future studies to develop a clinical screening tool to identify HIV-positive individuals likely to have future fertility intent and who could therefore benefit from sexual and reproductive health counselling around fertility options.en_US
dc.identifier.citationBai, D. et al. (2016). An approach to developing a prediction model of fertility intent among HIV-positive women and men in Cape Town, South Africa: a case study. AIDS and Behavior, 21: 597 – 609.en_US
dc.identifier.issn1090-7165
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10461-016-1441-7
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10566/3865
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.privacy.showsubmitterFALSE
dc.publisherSpringeren_US
dc.rightsThis is the author-version of the article published online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10461-016-1441-7
dc.status.ispeerreviewedTRUE
dc.subjectHIV infectionen_US
dc.subjectReproductive intentionsen_US
dc.subjectChildbearingen_US
dc.subjectHIV-positive women and menen_US
dc.subjectSouth Africaen_US
dc.subjectSensitivityen_US
dc.titleAn approach to developing a prediction model of fertility intent among HIV-positive women and men in Cape Town, South Africa: a case studyen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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