Modeling the effect of imported malaria on the elimination programme in KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa
Loading...
Date
2024
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
African Field Epidemiology Network
Abstract
Introduction: with imported malaria cases in a given population, the question arises as to what extent the local cases are a consequence of the imports or not. We perform a modeling analysis for a specific area, in a region aspiring for malaria-free status. Methods: data on malaria cases over ten years is subjected to a compartmental model which is assumed to be operating close to the equilibrium state. Two of the parameters of the model are fitted to the decadal data. The other parameters in the model are sourced from the literature. The model is utilized to simulate the malaria prevalence with or without imported cases. Results: in any given year the annual average of 460 imported cases, resulted in an end-of-year season malaria prevalence of 257 local active infectious cases, whereas without the imports the malaria prevalence at the end of the season would have been fewer than 10 active infectious cases. We calculate the numerical value of the basic reproduction number for the model, which reveals the extent to which the disease is being eliminated from the population or not. Conclusion: without the imported cases, over the ten seasons of malaria, 2008-2018, the KwaZulu-Natal province would have been malaria-free over at least the last 7 years of the decade indicated.
Description
Keywords
Certification, Culicidae, Epidemiological models, Malaria, Migrants
Citation
Witbooi, P.J., Abiodun, G.J. and Maharaj, R., 2024. Modeling the effect of imported malaria on the elimination programme in KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. The Pan African Medical Journal, 47.