Structural changes in unemployment duration in South Africa: Evidence from Labour Force Survey (2007 and 2010)

Abstract

This thesis aims to examine the structural changes affecting the duration of unemployment in South Africa. The study made use of Quantitative data derived from collected responses of participants from the Labour Force Survey (2007 and 2010) conducted by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). Unemployment is one of the major developmental issues prioritised by the government on the national agenda to alleviate poverty and improve the quality of life. Previous studies have measured the level of unemployment at the national level, showing a high rate of unemployment over the past years. However, there is no detailed information on how duration of unemployment is distributed across the different demographic variables such as age, gender and qualifications and also on previous work experience to name but a few. Information is limited regarding the duration of unemployment among these individual demographic characteristics. This study contributes to the existing stock of knowledge by exploring, in an in-depth manner at the micro level the extent to which the duration of unemployment affects the individuals along the line of socio demographic attributes such as age, gender, ethnic group, qualification and the previous job tenure. Going beyond the individual attributes, this study also examined the differentials in the person's reasons why they remain unemployed and poor. Different demographic statistical methods were used to look at the temporal changes into specific levels of unemployment duration. Relations among demographic variables were explored to investigate how they related to unemployment duration. On the basis of the relations identified, an attempt was made to conduct a predictory analysis of unemployment duration according to these characteristics by the use of a multiple linear regression. This research has found that there is a significant difference in the duration of unemployment in relation to the individual socio-demographic characteristics. This study revealed that the greatest share percentage of both men and women experiencing long-term unemployment is within the age group 25-34 years. The study also found that the percentage share of non-White population groups experiencing longer duration of unemployment is more than the White percentage share of staying unemployed over one year. Another variable this study found to be very important determinant of individual length of stay in unemployment is previous job tenure. The greatest percentage of individuals experiencing long-term unemployment is found among first job seekers. The study concluded with some recommendations for employment policy and research in the future.