Weak signal detection: A discrete window of opportunity for achieving ‘Vision 90:90:90’?
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Date
2016
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Taylor & Francis Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: UNAIDS’ Vision 90:90:90 is a call to ‘end AIDS’. Developing predictive foresight of the unpredictable changes that
this journey will entail could contribute to the ambition of ‘ending AIDS’. There are few opportunities for managing
unpredictable changes. We introduce ‘weak signal detection’ as a potential opportunity to fill this void. METHOD: Combining
futures and complexity theory, we reflect on two pilot case studies that involved the Archetype Extraction technique and the
SenseMakerw CollectorTM tool. RESULTS: Both the piloted techniques have the potentials to surface weak signals but there is
room for improvement. DISCUSSION: A management response to a complex weak signal requires pattern management, rather
than an exclusive focus on behaviour management. CONCLUSION: Weak signal detection is a window of opportunity to improve
resilience to unpredictable changes in the HIV/AIDS landscape that can both reduce the risk that emerges from the changes and
increase the visibility of opportunities to exploit the unpredictable changes that could contribute to ‘ending AIDS’.
Description
Keywords
Complexity theory, Futures science, Autopoiesis, Cynefin framework, HIV/AIDS
Citation
Burmana, C.J. et al. (2016). Weak signal detection: A discrete window of opportunity for achieving ‘Vision 90:90:90’? Sahara-J, 13(1): 17 - 34.