Predominant atmospheric and oceanic patterns during coastal marine heatwaves

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dc.contributor.authorSchlegel, Robert W.
dc.contributor.authorOliver, Eric C. J.
dc.contributor.authorPerkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah
dc.contributor.authorKruger, Andries
dc.date.accessioned2017-11-10T11:40:30Z
dc.date.available2017-11-10T11:40:30Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.description.abstractAs the mean temperatures of the worlds oceans increase, it is predicted that marine heatwaves (MHWs) will occur more frequently and with increased severity. However, it has been shown that variables other than increases in sea water temperature have been responsible for MHWs. To better understand these mechanisms driving MHWs we have utilized atmospheric (ERA-Interim) and oceanic (OISST, AVISO) data to examine the patterns around southern Africa during coastal (<400 m from the low water mark; measured in situ) MHWs. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) was first used to determine that the atmospheric and oceanic states during MHW are different from daily climatological states. Self-organizing maps (SOMs) were then used to cluster the MHW states into one of nine nodes to determine the predominant atmospheric and oceanic patterns present during these events. It was found that warmwater forced onto the coast via anomalous ocean circulation was the predominant oceanic pattern during MHWs. Warm atmospheric temperatures over the subcontinent during onshore or alongshore winds were the most prominent atmospheric patterns. Roughly one third of the MHWs were clustered into a node with no clear patterns, which implied that they were not forced by a recurring atmospheric or oceanic state that could be described by the SOManalysis. Because warm atmospheric and/or oceanic temperature anomalies were not the only pattern associated withMHWs, the current trend of a warming earth does not necessarily mean that MHWs will increase apace; however, aseasonal variability in wind and current patterns was shown to be central to the formation of coastal MHWs, meaning that where climate systems shift from historic records, increases in MHWs will likely occur.en_US
dc.identifier.citationSchlegel, R.W. et al. (2017). Predominant atmospheric and oceanic patterns during coastal marine heatwaves. Frontiers in Marine Science, 4: 323en_US
dc.identifier.issn2296-7745
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00323
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10566/3260
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.privacy.showsubmitterFALSE
dc.publisherFrontiers Mediaen_US
dc.rightsCopyright © 2017 Schlegel, Oliver, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Kruger and Smit. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
dc.status.ispeerreviewedTRUE
dc.subjectMarine heatwavesen_US
dc.subjectCode:Ren_US
dc.subjectCoastalen_US
dc.subjectAtmosphereen_US
dc.subjectOceanen_US
dc.subjectIn situen_US
dc.subjectDataen_US
dc.subjectReanalysis dataen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.titlePredominant atmospheric and oceanic patterns during coastal marine heatwavesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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