A population model for the 2017/18 listeriosis outbreak in South Africa

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dc.contributor.authorWitbooi, Peter Joseph
dc.contributor.authorAfrica, Charlene Wilma Joyce
dc.contributor.authorChristoffels, Alan
dc.contributor.authorAhmed, Ibrahim Hussin Ibrahim
dc.date.accessioned2020-10-30T08:57:02Z
dc.date.available2020-10-30T08:57:02Z
dc.date.issued2020-03-12
dc.description.abstractWe introduce a compartmental model of ordinary differential equations for the population dynamics of listeriosis, and we derive a model for analysing a listeriosis outbreak. The model explicitly accommodates neonatal infections. Similarly as is common in cholera modeling, we include a compartment to represent the reservoir of bacteria. We also include a compartment to represent the incubation phase. For the 2017/18 listeriosis outbreak that happened in South Africa, we calculate the time pattern and intensity of the force of infection, and we determine numerical values for some of the parameters in the model. The model is calibrated using South African data, together with existing data in the open literature not necessarily from South Africa. We make projections on the future outlook of the epidemiology of the disease and the possibility of eradication.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipSouth African Research Chairs Initiative - Department of Science and Innovation and the South African National Research Foundation - UID:64751en_US
dc.identifier.citationWitbooi PJ, Africa C, Christoffels A, Ahmed IHI. A population model for the 2017/18 listeriosis outbreak in South Africa. PLoS One. 2020 Mar 12;15(3):e0229901. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229901. PMID: 32163438; PMCID: PMC7067559.en_US
dc.identifier.otherdoi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229901
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10566/5329
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherPLoS Oneen_US
dc.subjectlisteriosisen_US
dc.subjectListeria monocytogenesen_US
dc.subjectepidemiologyen_US
dc.subjectpopulation modelingen_US
dc.subjectdisease outbreaken_US
dc.titleA population model for the 2017/18 listeriosis outbreak in South Africaen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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