South African child deaths 1990-2011: have HIV services reversed the trend enough to meet Millennium Development Goal 4?

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dc.contributor.authorKerber, Kate J.
dc.contributor.authorLawn, Joy E.
dc.contributor.authorSanders, David
dc.contributor.authorJackson, Debra
dc.contributor.authorJohnson, Leigh F.
dc.contributor.authorMaye, Mary
dc.contributor.authorDorrington, Rob E.
dc.contributor.authorPhillips, Heston
dc.contributor.authorBradshaw, Debbie
dc.contributor.authorNannan, Nadine
dc.contributor.authorMsemburi, William
dc.contributor.authorOestergaard, Mikkel Z.
dc.contributor.authorWalker, Neff P.
dc.date.accessioned2017-07-04T07:06:33Z
dc.date.available2017-07-04T07:06:33Z
dc.date.issued2013
dc.description.abstractOBJECTIVE: To analyse trends in under-five mortality rate in South Africa (1990–2011), particularly the contribution of AIDS deaths. METHODS: Three nationally used models for estimating AIDS deaths in children were systematically reviewed. The model outputs were compared with under-five mortality rate estimates for South Africa from two global estimation models. All estimates were compared with available empirical data. RESULTS: Differences between the models resulted in varying point estimates for underfive mortality but the trends were similar, with mortality increasing to a peak around 2005. The three models showing the contribution of AIDS suggest a maximum of 37– 39% of child deaths were due to AIDS in 2004–2005 which has since declined. Although the rate of progress from 1990 is not the 4.4% needed to meet Millennium Development Goal 4 for child survival, South Africa’s average annual rate of under-five mortality decline between 2006 and 2011 was between 6.3 and 10.2%. CONCLUSION: In 2005, South Africa was one of only four countries globally with an under-five mortality rate higher than the 1990 Millennium Development Goal baseline. Over the past 5 years, the country has achieved a rate of child mortality reduction exceeded by only three other countries. This rapid turnaround is likely due to scale-up of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, and to a lesser degree, the expanded roll-out of antiretroviral therapy. Emphasis on these programmes must continue, but failure to address other aspects of care including integrated high-quality maternal and neonatal care means that the decline in child mortality could stall.en_US
dc.description.accreditationDepartment of HE and Training approved list
dc.identifier.citationKerber, K. J. et al. (2013). South African child deaths 1990-2011: have HIV services reversed the trend enough to meet Millennium Development Goal 4? AIDS, 27 (16): 2637–2648en_US
dc.identifier.issn0269-9370
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10566/3033
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherLippincott Williams & Wilkinsen_US
dc.rightsPublisher retains copyright. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivitives 3.0 License, where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially.
dc.source.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1097/01.aids.0000432987.53271.40
dc.subjectAIDS modelsen_US
dc.subjectChild mortalityen_US
dc.subjectEpidemiologyen_US
dc.subjectMillennium development goalsen_US
dc.subjectNeonatal mortalityen_US
dc.subjectPrevention of mother-to-child transmissionen_US
dc.subjectSouth Africaen_US
dc.titleSouth African child deaths 1990-2011: have HIV services reversed the trend enough to meet Millennium Development Goal 4?en_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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