Land-market drivers of peri-urban land transformation in Mpingu and Malingunde extension planning areas, Lilongwe District, Malawi

Abstract

Introduction – Peri-urban land use and land cover change is accelerating across Sub-Saharan Africa, reshaping agrarian landscapes where smallholder farming, settlement expansion, and common resources increasingly compete. This study investigated the drivers of land-use transitions in Mpingu and Malingunde Extension Planning Areas of Lilongwe District, Malawi, two rapidly transforming peri-urban agricultural landscapes. Methods – The study integrated spatial analysis with household-level econometric evidence. Land use and land cover maps for 2004, 2014, and 2024 were used to assess landscape transformation, while household survey data from 279 farming households captured land scarcity, fragmentation, tenure conditions, and market-related pressures. Land-use transitions were analysed using a multinomial logit model grounded in a land-market political economy framework. Results – The spatial analysis revealed substantial landscape transformation over the two-decade period, with natural woodland declining by approximately 66%, cropland expanding by approximately 459%, and built-up settlement areas increasing by approximately 127%. Household data showed severe land scarcity and fragmentation, with a mean farm size of 0.46 ha and more than 80% of households cultivating multiple spatially separated parcels. The multinomial logit model demonstrated strong explanatory power, with LR χ2 = 147.32, p < 0.001, and McFadden’s Pseudo R2 = 0.38. A one-unit increase in aggregate land demand pressure raised the probability of forest conversion to cropland by 18.4 percentage points, p < 0.01, while peri-urban land market intensity increased the probability of cropland conversion to settlement by 24.7 percentage points, p < 0.001. Competing land-use pressure significantly accelerated the conversion of communal grazing land to cropland, increasing transition probability by 16.3 percentage points, p < 0.01. Tenure security reduced the likelihood of settlement conversion by 11.2 percentage points, p < 0.01, indicating its moderating role in land-use change. Discussion – The findings show that peri-urban land transformation in Mpingu and Malingunde is driven primarily by land markets, spatial accessibility, and institutional conditions rather than demographic pressure alone.