Mapping the spatial distribution of underutilised crop species under climate change using the MaxEnt model: A case of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

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dc.contributor.authorMugiyo, Hillary
dc.contributor.authorChimonyo, Vimbayi G.P.
dc.contributor.authorSibanda, Mbulisi
dc.date.accessioned2022-11-10T07:56:39Z
dc.date.available2022-11-10T07:56:39Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractKnowing the spatial and temporal suitability of neglected and underutilised crop species (NUS) is important for fitting them into marginal production areas and cropping systems under climate change. The current study used climate change scenarios to map the future distribution of selected NUS, namely, sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), cowpea (Vigna unguiculata), amaranth (Amaranthus) and taro (Colocasia esculenta) in the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province, South Africa. The future distribution of NUS was simulated using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model using regional circulation models (RCMs) from the CORDEX archive, each driven by a different global circulation model (GCM), for the years 2030 to 2070. The study showed an increase of 0.1�11.8% under highly suitable (S1), moderately suitable (S2), and marginally suitable (S3) for sorghum, cowpea, and amaranth growing areas from 2030 to 2070 across all RCPs. In contrast, the total highly suitable area for taro production is projected to decrease by 0.3�9.78% across all RCPs. The jack-knife tests of the MaxEnt model performed efficiently, with areas under the curve being more significant than 0.8. The study identified annual precipitation, length of the growing period, and minimum and maximum temperature as variables contributing significantly to model predictions.en_US
dc.identifier.citationMugiyo, H. et al. (2022). Mapping the spatial distribution of underutilised crop species under climate change using the MaxEnt model: A case of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Climate Services, 28, 100330. 10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100330en_US
dc.identifier.issn2405-8807
dc.identifier.issn10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100330
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10566/8159
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherElsevieren_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectFood securityen_US
dc.subjectNutrition securityen_US
dc.subjectLand sustainabilityen_US
dc.subjectSouth Africaen_US
dc.titleMapping the spatial distribution of underutilised crop species under climate change using the MaxEnt model: A case of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africaen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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