Browsing by Author "Thron, Christopher"

Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
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    Basic statistical estimation outperforms machine learning in monthly prediction of seasonal climatic parameters
    (MPDI, 2021) Hussein, Eslam A.; Ghaziasgar, Mehrdad; Thron, Christopher
    Machine learning (ML) has been utilized to predict climatic parameters, and many successes have been reported in the literature. In this paper, we scrutinize the effectiveness of five widely used ML algorithms in the monthly prediction of seasonal climatic parameters using monthly image data. Specifically, we quantify the predictive performance of these algorithms applied to five climatic parameters using various combinations of features. We compare the predictive accuracy of the resulting trained ML models to that of basic statistical estimators that are computed directly from the training data. Our results show that ML never significantly outperforms the statistical baseline, and underperforms for most feature sets. Unlike previous similar studies, we provide error bars for the relative performance of different predictors based on jackknife estimates applied to differences in predictive error magnitudes. We also show that the practice of shuffling data sequences which was employed in some previous references leads to data leakage, resulting in over-estimated performance. Ultimately, the paper demonstrates the importance of using well-grounded statistical techniques when producing and analyzing the results of ML predictive models.
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    Comparison of phenolic content and antioxidant activity for fermented and unfermented rooibos samples extracted with water and methanol
    (MPDI, 2022) Hussein, Eslam A.; Thron, Christopher; Ghaziasgar, Mehrdad
    Rooibos is brewed from the medicinal plant Aspalathus linearis. It has a well-established wide spectrum of bio-activity properties, which in part may be attributed to the phenolic antioxidant power. The antioxidant capacity (AOC) of rooibos is related to its total phenolic content (TPC). The relation between TPC and AOC of randomly selected 51 fermented (FR) and 47 unfermented (UFR) rooibos samples was studied after extraction using water and methanol separately. The resulted extracts were assessed using two antioxidant assays, trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity (TEAC) and ferric reducing antioxidant power (FRAP). The results were analyzed using both simple statistical methods and machine learning. The analysis showed different trends of TPC and AOC correlations of FR and UFR samples, depending on the solvent used for extraction. The results of the water extracts showed similar TPC and higher AOC of FR than UFR samples, while the methanolic extracted samples showed higher TPC and AOC of UFR than FR. As a result, the methanolic extracts showed better agreement between TPC and AOC than water extracts.
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    Groundwater prediction using machine-learning tools
    (MPDI, 2020) Hussein, Eslam A.; Thron, Christopher; Ghaziasgar, Mehrdad
    Predicting groundwater availability is important to water sustainability and drought mitigation. Machine-learning tools have the potential to improve groundwater prediction, thus enabling resource planners to: (1) anticipate water quality in unsampled areas or depth zones; (2) design targeted monitoring programs; (3) inform groundwater protection strategies; and (4) evaluate the sustainability of groundwater sources of drinking water. This paper proposes a machine-learning approach to groundwater prediction with the following characteristics: (i) the use of a regression-based approach to predict full groundwater images based on sequences of monthly groundwater maps; (ii) strategic automatic feature selection (both local and global features) using extreme gradient boosting; and (iii) the use of a multiplicity of machine-learning techniques (extreme gradient boosting, multivariate linear regression, random forests, multilayer perceptron and support vector regression). Of these techniques, support vector regression consistently performed best in terms of minimizing root mean square error and mean absolute error. Furthermore, including a global feature obtained from a Gaussian Mixture Model produced models with lower error than the best which could be obtained with local geographical features.
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    Regional rainfall prediction using support vector machine classification of large-scale precipitation maps
    (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2020) Hussein, Eslam A.; Ghaziasgar, Mehrdad; Thron, Christopher
    Rainfall prediction helps planners anticipate potential social and economic impacts produced by too much or too little rain. This research investigates a class-based approach to rainfall prediction from 1-30 days in advance. The study made regional predictions based on sequences of daily rainfall maps of the continental US, with rainfall quantized at 3 levels: light or no rain; moderate; and heavy rain. Three regions were selected, corresponding to three squares from a 5 × 5 grid covering the map area. Rainfall predictions up to 30 days ahead for these three regions were based on a support vector machine (SVM) applied to consecutive sequences of prior daily rainfall map images. The results show that predictions for corner squares in the grid were less accurate than predictions obtained by a simple untrained classifier. However, SVM predictions for a central region outperformed the other two regions, as well as the untrained classifier. We conclude that there is some evidence that SVMs applied to large-scale precipitation maps can under some conditions give useful information for predicting regional rainfall, but care must be taken to avoid pitfalls.