Browsing by Author "Mengistu, Ashenafi Kelemu"

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    Mathematical analysis of TB model with vaccination and saturated incidence rate
    (Hindawi, 2020) Witbooi, Peter Joseph; Mengistu, Ashenafi Kelemu
    The model system of ordinary differential equations considers two classes of latently infected individuals, with different risk of becoming infectious. The system has positive solutions. By constructing a Lyapunov function, it is proved that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, then the disease-free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. The Routh-Hurwitz criterion is used to prove the local stability of the endemic equilibrium when R0 > 1. The model is illustrated using parameters applicable to Ethiopia. A variety of numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate our main results.
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    Tuberculosis in Ethiopia: Optimal intervention strategies and cost-effectiveness analysis
    (MDPI, 2022) Mengistu, Ashenafi Kelemu; Witbooi, Peter J.
    This paper searches for optimal strategies for the minimization of the number of high-risk latent and active tuberculosis (TB) infectious individuals using real data from Ethiopia. Optimal control theory is harnessed for investigation and analysis of the optimal combination of interventions for controlling the transmission of TB using distancing, case finding, and case holding as controls. We calculate and compare the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for each of the strategies to determine the most effective combination of interventions for curbing the spread of the disease. Our findings suggest that, for optimal cost-effective management of the TB disease, the government of Ethiopia must focus more on prevention strategies such as isolation of infectious people, early TB patient detection, treatment, and educational programs. The optimal strategy is quantified through simulation.