Browsing by Author "Dzwairo, Rimuka Bloodless"

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    Hydrological modelling and climate adaptation under changing climate: A review with a focus in sub-Saharan Africa
    (MDPI, 2022) Banda, Vincent Dzulani; Dzwairo, Rimuka Bloodless; Singh, Sudhir Kumar
    Empirical evidence continues to show that climate change remains a threat to the stability of the hydrologic system. As the climate system interacts with the hydrologic cycle, one significant repercussion of global warming includes changes in water availability at both regional and local scales. Climate change adaptation is intrinsically difficult to attain due to the dynamic earth system and lack of a comprehensive understanding of future climate and its associated uncertainties. Mostly in developing countries, climate adaptation is hampered by scarcity of good quality and adequate hydrometeorological data. This article provides a synopsis of the modelling chain applied to investigate the response of the hydrologic system under changing climate, which includes choosing the appropriate global climate models, downscaling techniques, emission scenarios, and the approach to be used in hydrologic modelling. The conventional criteria for choosing a suitable hydrological model are discussed.
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    Quantifying the influence of climate change on streamflow of Rietspruit sub-basin, South Africa
    (IWA Publishing, 2024) Banda, Vincent Dzulani; Kanyerere, Thokozani; Dzwairo, Rimuka Bloodless
    This study integrated climate projections from five global climate models (GCMs) into the soil and water assessment tool to evaluate the potential impact of climate alterations on the Rietspruit River sub-basin under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The model’s performance was evaluated based on the coefficient of determination (R2), percent bias (PBIAS), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), probability (P)-factor and correlation coefficient (R)-factor. Calibration results showed an R2 of 0.62, NSE of 0.60, PBIAS of 20, P-factor of 0.86 and R-factor of 0.91, while validation produced an R2 of 0.64, NSE of 0.61, PBIAS of 40, P-factor of 0.85 and R-factor of 1.22. Precipitation is predicted to increase under both RCPs. Maximum temperature is projected to increase under both RCPs, with a major increase in the winter months. Minimum temperatures are projected to decrease under RCP4.5 in the near (0.99 °C) and mid (0.23 °C) futures, while the far future is projected to experience an increase of 0.14 °C. Precipitation and temperature changes correspond to increases in streamflow by an average of 53% (RCP4.5) and 47% (RCP8.5)