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Browsing by Author "Aliber, Michael"

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Another countryside? Policy options for land and agrarian reform in South Africa
(Institute for Poverty, Land and Agrarian Studies, University of the Western Cape, 2009) Aliber, Michael; Andrews, Mercia; Baiphethi, Mompati; Cliffe, Lionel; Hall, Ruth; Jacobs, Peter; Jara, Mazibuko; Kleinbooi, Karin; Lahiff, Edward; Zamchiya, Phillan
Land reform in South Africa is a political project that has foundered. For years, the process has been variously described as being ‘in crisis’, ‘at a crossroads’, ‘at an impasse’ or simply ’stuck’. This still seems as true as ever, as political pressure is mounting to find new solutions to old problems. In recent years, the issue of ‘delivery’, and how to speed it up, has taken centre stage and become a justificatory framework for arguments about how to reconfigure roles of the state and private sector in land reform. In the process, little attention has been given to the relationship between policy change and mobilisation from below. In the absence of sustained and organised pressure from rural people themselves, it appears that the shifts underway in land reform policy are not so much about ‘delivery’ as about reframing the entire project. Increasingly, the debates on land reform centre not so much on the mechanisms to be used, as on the vision that is to be pursued – something about which existing policy is remarkably silent. At stake is nothing less than what, and whom, land reform is for. South Africans are deeply divided on this question.
The case for re-strategising spending priorities to support small-scale farmers in South Africa
(Institute for Poverty, Land and Agrarian Studies, University of the Western Cape, 2010-04) Hall, Ruth; Aliber, Michael
This paper summarises what is known about South Africa’s public expenditure trends in respect of small-scale farmers, and discusses the growing contradictions between the policy priority placed on small-scale farming and the adequacy of support provided to small-scale farmers. It then proceeds to argue that: i) dramatic increases in public expenditure support to small-scale agriculture are highly unlikely, while further incremental increases to support the sector will in themselves make little difference; ii) a lot of the money already available to support small-scale agriculture is not well spent, with a particular imbalance evident between relatively large amounts of support to badly conceptualised land reform projects at the expense of black farmers in the ex-Bantustans; iii) there is an urgent need to shift the emphasis of support from on-farm infrastructure and inputs, to community-level infrastructure, market development and institutional re-engineering.
Development of evidence-based policy around small-scale farming
(Institute for Poverty Land and Agrarian Studies (PLAAS), 2015) Aliber, Michael; Hall, Ruth
How to support small-scale and larger commercial farmers, and to make sure that they are productive and contribute effectively to the rural economy and to national food security.
Final Report
(GTAC, 2020-03-31) Cousins, Ben; Alcock, Rauri; Aliber, Michael; Geraci, Marisia; Losch, Bruno; Mayson, David; de Satgé, Rick
This study focuses on the potential contribution of redistributive land reform to employment creation. Can land redistribution be undertaken in a manner that also creates jobs, and if so, through which types of land use and farming systems, operating at what scales? What is the potential of small-scale farming, in particular? Despite its many limitations, the study breaks new ground by investigating the potential of small-scale farming for employment generation in specific locations. It highlights the potential for job creation in many commodities produced by small-scale farmers, and recommends a particular focus on extensive livestock and vegetable production.
How can we promote a range of livelihood opportunities through land redistribution?
(Institute for Poverty Land and Agrarian Studies (PLAAS), 2019) Aliber, Michael
This position paper sketches an approach to improving land redistribution in South Africa in which the broad aim is to use redistribution to create a range of livelihood opportunities, in meaningful numbers, in proportion to the understood need. The approach laid out in the paper is informed first and foremost by a reflection on South Africa’s land reform to date, which among other things requires contemplation of the respective strengths and limitations of government and other role-players, and market-based versus other mechanisms. The main argument is that government can and must play an active role to ensure that land reform caters to the demand for small farms on which to create opportunities for commercially-oriented smallholders, and for small plots for those whose primary need is tenure and food security. Somewhat different mechanisms can serve the interests of those seeking help through land reform to expand into large-scale farming. The paper illustrates/estimates how these diverse needs could be addressed in a balanced manner, and met in significant numbers given a larger budget for land redistribution, which is not unimaginable given the current budget’s negligible size.
The interaction between the land redistribution programme and the land market in South Africa: A perspective on the willing-buyer/willing-seller approach
(Institute for Poverty Land and Agrarian Studies (PLAAS), 2002) Aliber, Michael; Mokoena, Reuben
The debate rages on, in South Africa and elsewhere, about the desirability and efficacy of the willing-buyer/willing-seller approach to land redistribution. In South Africa, the willing-buyer/willing-seller approach is frequently blamed for the fact that the government’s redistribution programme has thus far fallen well short of expectations. To what extent is this judgement justified? Moreover, if the willing-buyer/willing-seller approach has indeed contributed to the unimpressive rate of delivery of the land redistribution programme, is this on account of certain aspects of the approach i.e. which could be selectively remedied ñ or is the willing-buyer/willing-seller approach fundamentally unsuited to the task allocated to it? The objective of this paper is to provide a partial answer to these questions. In short, the paper argues, on the one hand, that the willing-buyer/willing-seller approach is not as fundamentally ill-suited a mechanism to effect state-supported land redistribution as is commonly claimed. On the other hand, the paper suggests that the unimaginative manner in which the willing-buyer/willing-seller approach is being applied is definitely contributing to the slow pace of redistribution, and reflects a lack of vision and ambition among policy-makers. The development of the argument involves examining the interaction between the land market and the redistribution programme from different angles. In one angle, we seek simply to gauge the magnitude of the land redistribution programme relative to the level of normal activity in the rural property market (Section 4). A second angle involves an econometric exercise to determine whether or not the redistribution programme affects market prices of rural land (Section 5). And from a third angle, we review the experiences and perceptions of estate agents and staff of the Department of Land Affairs, so as to shed light on some of the specific allegations as to how the land market may be inhibiting redistribution (Section 6). We begin, however, with two sections by way of background, the one offering a synopsis of the debate around the willing-buyer/willing-seller approach (Section 2), and the other reporting recent trends in the land market (Section 3). We conclude with an examination of a number of specific policy issues, some of which suggest promising avenues for policy development and some of which do not (Section 7).
Livelihoods after land reform in South Africa
(Wiley, 2013) Aliber, Michael; Cousins, Ben
Over the past few decades, Zimbabwe, Namibia and South Africa have pursued redistributive land reform as a means to address rural poverty. The Livelihoods after Land Reform (LaLR) study was carried out between 2007 and 2009, to understand the livelihood and poverty reduction outcomes of land reform in each of the three countries. The South African component focused on Limpopo province, and investigated land reform processes, trajectories of change and outcomes in thirteen detailed case studies. This paper summarizes some of the main findings from the South African study, and briefly compares them with findings from Namibia and Zimbabwe. The paper argues that a fundamental problem affecting land reform in both South Africa and Namibia is the uncritical application of the Large-Scale Commercial Farming (LSCF) model, which has led to unworkable project design and/or projects that are irrelevant to the circumstances of the rural poor. Nevertheless, some ‘beneficiaries’ have experienced modest improvements in their livelihoods, often through abandoning or amending official project plans.
Livelihoods after land reform: The South African case
(Institute for Poverty Land and Agrarian Studies (PLAAS), 2012) Aliber, Michael; Maluleke, T; Manenzhe, T; Paradza, Gaynor; Cousins, Ben
SA’s land reform regarded as a failure – economic objectives – the spectre of ‘failed projects’ – changing the racial pattern of land ownership – too slow • No consensus as to why, or what to do • Even so, ambitious if vague promises • Dominant ethos = modernisation “Another focus area [of the Department] will be skills transfer, to promote the transfer of skills from white commercial farmers to black subsistence farmers” (Joemat-Pettersson, 2010)
Municipal case study Sakhisizwe Local Municipality, Eastern Cape
(GTAC, 2020-03-31) Aliber, Michael; Xabadiya, Avuyile
This report presents the municipality case study for Sakhisizwe Local Municipality in the Eastern Cape. The goal of the report is to examine the employment creating potential of land redistribution in Sakhisizwe Local Municipality and the costs associated with doing so. Sakhisizwe Local Municipality is located in the north-central part of the Eastern Cape. Its area comprises a large share of commercial farmland, and a smaller share of former Transkei. There has already been a reasonably large amount of land reform there: about 24% of the Municipality’s commercial farmland has changed hands via land reform, most of which happened between 2001 and 2009 via the redistribution programme.
Research Report to Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development in South Africa (PSPPD)
(Institute for Poverty, Land and Agrarian Studies, University of the Western Cape, 2011) Neves, David; Aliber, Michael; Mogaladi, Jan; du Toit, Andries
This report documents research conducted on small-scale informal self-employment at the margins of the South African economy. Despite high levels of poverty and unemployment South Africa has, by developing country standards, comparatively low levels of informal economic activity. Economic informality is therefore not only an issue of theoretical interest, but also one of significant public policy salience. The research combined qualitative and quantitative inquiry to understanding the contribution of informal self-employment to the livelihoods of impoverished households, along with factors that enable and constrain informal it. These empirical questions were examined in relation to current state policies and programmes targeted at the informal sector. The report concludes with policy recommendations intended to enhance the ability of policy makers to support the livelihoods of impoverished South Africans.
The role of night paddock manuring in the reduction of poverty and conflict amongst farmers and Grazers in small Babanki (Cameroon)
(University of the Western Cape, 2009) Ndikintum, Ndjinyo Fouda; Aliber, Michael; NULL; Faculty of Economics and Management Sciences
Agriculture and livestock production were the mainstay of the economies of many sub-Saharan African countries, including of Cameroon, in the 1970s. Things began to change with the discovery of petroleum products and natural minerals, and the push to industrialise. This led to a shift from agricultural production to other more 'beneficial' sectors. In the 1990s there was an 'imposed' liberalisation of the agricultural sector. This liberalisation was marked by a disengagement of most governments in developing countries from assisting agriculture. In Cameroon, disengagement was achieved by the promulgation of law No. 92/006 of 14th August 1992 and its decree of application No. 92/455/PM of 23rd November. This law encouraged the creation of common initiative groups which could independently pool their resources to increase agricultural production. Although there has been a shift to non-agricultural sectors in many sub-Saharan countries, on the whole, however, many rural areas in these nations have remained essentially agro-pastoral. nfortunately some rural areas, like Small Babanki in Cameroon, whose livelihoods are land-based are faced with soil erosion, population pressure and farmer/grazer conflicts which undermine the little economic gains made in these places. Rural-dwellers have resorted to several innovations to circumvent these constraints to agricultural production.
The role of night paddock manuring in the reduction of poverty and conflict amongst farmers and grazers in small Babanki (Cameroon)
(University of the Western Cape, 2008) Ndikintum, Ndjinyo Fouda; Aliber, Michael
Agriculture and livestock production were the mainstay of the economies of many sub-Saharan African countries, including of Cameroon, in the 1970s. Things began to change with the discovery of petroleum products and natural minerals, and the push to industrialise. This led to a shift from agricultural production to other more 'beneficial' sectors. In the 1990s there was an 'imposed' liberalisation of the agricultural sector. This liberalisation was marked by a disengagement of most governments in developing countries from assisting agriculture. In Cameroon, disengagement was achieved by the promulgation of law No. 92/006 of 14th August 1992 and its decree of application No. 92/455/PM of 23rd November. This law encouraged the creation of common initiative groups which could independently pool their resources to increase agricultural production. Although there has been a shift to non-agricultural sectors in many sub- Saharan countries, on the whole, however, many rural areas in these nations have remained essentially agro-pastoral. Unfortunately some rural areas, like Small Babanki in Cameroon, whose livelihoods are land-based are faced with soil erosion, population pressure and farmer/grazer conflicts which undermine the little economic gains made in these places. Rural-dwellers have resorted to several innovations to circumvent these constraints to agricultural production. Objectives of the research This research focused on an indigenous agricultural innovation called Cameroon. The innovation involves a partnership between farmers and grazers whereby farmers build paddocks around their farms, and cattle herders drive their herds into farms where they deposit their manure. The idea of the practice is that it enriches the soil of the farms, provides the herds access to good fodder, and reduces conflicts between crop farmers and grazers. The objective of the study was to investigate the role this agricultural innovation is playing in reducing poverty and farmer/grazer conflicts. The research focused on a community called Small Babanki located in the North-West Region of Cameroon. Research questions To gain accurate insight into the role played by NPM, answers were sought to the following questions: (i) What are the causes of farmer/grazer conflicts in Small Babanki and how are these conflicts manifested? (ii) What efforts have been made hitherto by stakeholders to resolve farmer/grazer conflicts and what were the outcomes of such interventions? (iii) What motivated the development of the NPM farming system and how does the system function? (iv) How has the introduction of NPM affected the occurrence of conflicts and the resolution of conflicts when they occur? (v) Has NPM contributed to increasing the output, income and the market value of the products of farmers and grazers? (vi) How have the asset bases of grazers and farmers changed and what additional livelihood options are available to them as a result of adopting NPM? (vii) What are the major constraints that hinder practitioners of the innovation from getting maximum returns from it? Data collection method The data collection method for this research involved a review of reports written on the innovation by NGOs promoting it. Within Small Babanki, a focus group discussion was held with farmers and an elaborate questionnaire was administered amongst 10 randomly selected farmer households and 10 randomly selected grazer households. Structured interviews were also held with key informants, such as local officials and traditional and religious leaders. Findings and conclusions The research supports the perception that, in Small Babakni, NPM benefits both crop farmer and grazer households by means of improving productivity, reducing poverty, and reducing conflict. Respondents indicated that generally speaking the asset base and livelihood options of practitioners of NPM are constantly improving. They also stressed that improvements in education, health, nutrition, land tenure and safety of shelter are indicative of the amelioration of their state of wellbeing, and this in large measure can be attributed to the adoption of NPM Measurement of poverty using the both the US$I/day and the national poverty line of 503.19 Cf'Azday revealed that cropping households are living on the fringes of poverty while grazing households tend to live just above the poverty line. However, going by information provided by respondents on their outputs, the proportion of what was consumed by the household, the proportion of what was sold and the proportion of what was retained enabled us to make an estimation of the cash and noncash incomes of both grazing and cropping households. It was discovered that at any point they seemed to have a significant noncash wealth reserve which could easily be converted into cash in order to meet daily expenses. Both the declarations of respondents and some official documentation suggest that NPM was contributing positively towards a reduction of conflicts between farmers and grazers in Small Babanki.
Rural jobs: Commodity sector possibilities and constraints – the case of smallholder irrigation schemes in the Eastern Cape
(2015-10-10) Aliber, Michael
• NDP – 1 million new jobs in agriculture; largely premised on expanding the area under irrigation • Cousins – “The evidence from Tugela Ferry and other irrigation schemes shows that where [small-scale farmers] have access to fertile soils, irrigation water and markets, small-scale farmers can be highly productive and earn reasonable returns” (2012)
Self-employment in South Africa’s informal sector: Prevalence, prospects and policy
(Institute for Poverty, Land and Agrarian Studies, University of the Western Cape, 2011) Neves, David; Aliber, Michael; Mogaladi, Jan; du Toit, Andries
This text describes research undertaken to investigate small-scale self-employment at the margins of the South African economy. Despite high levels of poverty and unemployment South Africa’s informal sector is, by developing country standards, comparatively small. As economic informality is crucial to the livelihoods of many impoverished households, this is not only an issue of theoretical interest but of public policy significance. The research described in what follows drew on an integrated qualitative and quantitative inquiry in order to understand the contribution of informal self-employment to the livelihoods of impoverished households. The study sought to examine the factors that both enable and constrain informal self-employment, as well as state policies and programmes concerned with economic informality. The chapter concludes by discussing a number of policy recommendations intended to enhance the ability of policymakers to appropriately support the livelihoods of the poor. Since being coined almost four decades ago, the nomenclature of the ‘informal sector’ has been used to describe marginal and low-productivity economic activities, often outside the realm of state regulation and taxation (Hart, 1972). More recently enterprise-based definitions of economic informality have been eclipsed by employment-based conceptions, and refer to those who labour outside networks of employment contracts, protections and benefits (Jutting et al. 2007). However, in much the same way as the controversial concept of a ‘second economy’ (African National Congress, 2004), the moniker of the informal sector potentially invokes an overstated dualism. It overlooks the manner in which formal and informal are intertwined, and the manner in which the precarious employment conditions associated with informality are increasingly to be found at the heart of ‘formal’ enterprises and economies. These are increasingly manifest in practices such as outsourcing, casualisation and contractualisation. Although the concept of the informal sector enjoys much continued usage it is a contested and imprecise concept that potentially obscures as much as it reveals.
Smallholder farmers response to changes in the farming environment in Gokwe-Kabiyuni, Zimbabwe
(University of the Western Cape, 2010) Chereni, Simbarashe; Aliber, Michael; Programme for Land and Agrarian Studies; Faculty of Arts
Following Bryceson's article, 'De-agrarianisation in Sub-Saharan Africa: Acknowledging the Inevitable', and other related writings in the volume Farewell to Farms, rural development has become a contested academic and policy domain. One side of the debate is characterized by 'agrarian optimism', mirrored in various state policies and advice from the World Bank; the other side is typified by the de-agrarianisation thesis, which is sceptical regarding the agrarian path to rural development, because it doesn't accord with dominant trends. The main reasons given for the trend of de-agrarianisation are: unfavourable climatic trends, economic adjustments, and population growth. While the de-agrarianisation thesis seems to be a sensible proposition, it has failed to attract many disciples, evidenced by the continuation of current policy directions towards the agrarian optimistic path. The purpose of this study was to assess the applicability of the de-agrarianisation thesis in the Gokwe-Kabiyuni area of Zimbabwe, during a time when the nation went through climatic, economic and political crises. The idea was to assess the influence of such an environment to smallholder farmers in terms of livelihood strategies by observing trends in climate, education, occupation, and crop yields over the period. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to establish whether the de-agrarianisation process can be noted in two villages over the period 1990-2008. A comparative analysis of the experiences of smallholder farmers in these two villages revealed the existence of a cultivation culture and differential agrarian resilience depending on natural resource endowment and levels of infrastructural development, notwithstanding the involvement of the villagers in non-farm activities to diversify their livelihood portfolios.
Smallholders and agro-food value chains in South Africa: Emerging practices, emerging challenges
(Institute for Poverty, Land and Agrarian Studies, University of the Western Cape, 2013) Aliber, Michael; Armour, Jack; Chikazunga, Davison; Cousins, Ben; Davis, Nerhene; Greenberg, Stephen; Khumalo, Lusito D; Lewis, Marc; Louw, Andre; Nkomo, Mandla; Paradza, Gaynor
A key emerging strand in the development of smallholder agriculture in South Africa is the effort to integrate smallholders into corporate food retail value chains. In this, the private sector and government have a common agenda, which is to build a commercial smallholder class that does not require ongoing financial support for survival, but which is able to stand on its own feet and compete in the market. Both government and the private sector recognise the need for some kind of ‘start-up’ support, and Walmart-Massmart’s recently announced supplier fund will put pressure on other food retailers to deepen their own activities in this regard.
Strategies to support South African smallholders as a contribution to government’s second economy strategy. Volume 1: Situation analysis, fieldwork findings and main conclusions
(PLAAS, University of the Western Cape, 2009) Aliber, Michael; Baiphethi, Mompati; de Satge, Rick; Denison, Jonathan; Hart, Tim; Jacobs, Peter; van Averbeke, Wim
Within the ambit of the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative of South Africa, government is leading a process to define a Second Economy Strategy, and has identified the agricultural sector as a site of opportunity, potentially fostering a larger number of smallholder agriculturalists. In an effort to identify an implementable program to support the smallholder sector, this study closely analyses what makes particular South African smallholdings in various settings successful and what factors contributed to their success. A broad definition of agricultural smallholding is employed including independent operators, group farmers, subsistence farmers and commercial farmers. ‘Supporting the smallholder sector’ is conceptualised as consisting of four distinct strands, namely the prospects and measures for: improving the performance of subsistence-oriented smallholders; encouraging/enabling currently subsistence-oriented smallholders to benefit from a more commercial orientation; improving the performance of commercially oriented smallholders; and increasing participation in smallholder agriculture among those (especially rural dwellers) who do not practise agriculture.
Strategies to support South African smallholders as a contribution to government’s second economy strategy. Volume 2: Case studies
(PLAAS, University of the Western Cape, 2011) Aliber, Michael
This second volume of Strategies to support South African smallholders as a contribution to government’s second economy strategy contains sixteen case studies that comprise the main data for the analysis detailed in Volume 1. This collection of case studies provides a useful resource on its own, providing a rich and diverse repository of narratives depicting various types of smallholders in diverse circumstances and environments. As researchers were given the latitude to deviate from a standardised approach, this volume reveals the authors’ different styles, different emphases, and indeed different disciplinary strengths. The ‘unit of analysis’ also differs across case studies: some are studies of single individuals, others focus on particular schemes or projects, and still others involve a comparative analysis of individuals or projects. Due to the complexity of categorising the case studies they have been simply grouped by province, and are ordered, roughly, from southwest to northeast.
Strategies to support South African smallholders as a contribution to government’s second economy strategy: Volume 1: Situation analysis, fieldwork findings and main conclusions
(Institute for Poverty, Land and Agrarian Studies, University of the Western Cape, 2010) Aliber, Michael; Baiphethi, Mompati; de Satge, Rick; Denison, Jonathan; Hart, Tim; Jacobs, Peter; van Averbeke, Wim; Alcock, Rauri; Antwi, Mike; Belete, Abenet; Cousins, Ben; Field, Larry; Mariga, Irvine; Masika, Patrick; Materechera, Simeon; Mayson, David; Monde, Nomakhaya; Tapela, Barbara
Within the ambit of the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative of South Africa, government is leading a process to define a Second Economy Strategy. One of the opportunities that has been identified is the agricultural sector, in particular fostering a larger number of smallholder agriculturalists. The study seeks to identify the key elements of an implementable programme to support the smallholder sector. The core of the exercise entailed identifying successful South African smallholders active in different settings, and examining the factors that contribute to their success, whether these are personal, contextual, institutional, etc. Although the study was not designed as an evaluation of interventions as such, in the process of conducting the smallholder case studies (and in combination with an extensive literature review), the efficacy and relevance of different intervention and support strategies also came into focus.
Study of the incidence and nature of chronic poverty and development policy in South Africa: An overview
(Institute for Poverty Land and Agrarian Studies (PLAAS), 2001) Aliber, Michael
The purpose of this study is fourfold: first, to summarise the current state of knowledge about chronic poverty in South Africa; second, to describe the range of existing governmental and civil society initiatives which address chronic poverty; third, to identify challenges to addressing chronic poverty in South Africa; and fourth, to identify themes for further research. For the purposes of this study, house- holds or individuals are understood to be in chronic poverty when their condition of poverty endures over a period of time. Different researchers propose different time periods as characteristic of chronic poverty (for example, six months, ten years); this is usually taken to mean that the household or individual remains beneath the poverty line for all or virtually all of this period. Alternatively, and perhaps more meaningfully, chronic poverty can be understood as the inability of households or individuals, perhaps for lack of opportunity, to better their circumstances over time or to sustain themselves through difficult times. Chronic poverty can be a function of an individual’s characteristics (for example, elderly, disabled), or of the environment (for example, sustained periods of high unemployment, landlessness), or of a combination of the two. Indeed, a common scenario in South Africa involves the coincidence of poor health, meagre education, and fractured families, on the one hand, with skewed resource distribution, inadequate infrastructure, and scarce employment opportunities, on the other. The combination is more than sufficient to trap many people in poverty. To date, there has been only one set of data collected in South Africa which allows an inter-temporal comparison among the same households. This is the KwaZulu-Natal Income Dynamics Study (KIDS) which, as the name implies, covers only one of South Africa’s nine provinces. Because this data set and the analyses based upon it are unique, we discuss it at length. One of the important findings from the KIDS data is that 22 per cent of the 1 200 African households that were sur- veyed were poor in both 1993 and 1998. This represents about two thirds of all households that were poor in 1993, and one half of those that were poor in 1998, showing that at least half of those households that are poor, are chronically poor. Another interesting finding is that ‘ultra- poverty’ is not synonymous with chronic poverty. In other words, a household that is just below the poverty line in one period is no more likely to move above the poverty line in the next period than a household that started off much further below the poverty line. A key determinant of whether a household stays in poverty, escapes from poverty, or falls into poverty, is how that household fares in terms of employment. One of the surprising findings from the KIDS data set was the degree of employment volatility experienced by households. Notwithstanding the contribution of household income sources other than formal sector employment, employ- ment apparently makes the difference between survival and total destitution, but less commonly associated with the difference between being poor and not being poor. Income sources outside the formal sector may make the difference between survival and total destitution, but are less likely to determine whether an individual or household is poor or not. The KIDS-based studies as well as other poverty analyses allow us to identify groups especially likely to be chronically poor. These include rural households, households headed by women, households effectively headed by elderly people, and households headed by former (retrenched) farm workers. Over the next 10 years, however, AIDS orphans and households directly affected by AIDS will probably figure as the most prominent category of people trapped in chronic poverty.

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