Bai, DanLeu, Cheng-ShiunMantell, Joanne E.Exner, Theresa M.Cooper, DianeHoffman, SusieKelvin, Elizabeth A.Myer, LandonConstant, DebbieMoodley, Jennifer2018-07-092018-07-092017Bai, D. et al. (2016). An approach to developing a prediction model of fertility intent among HIV-positive women and men in Cape Town, South Africa: a case study. AIDS and Behavior, 21: 597 – 609.1090-7165http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10461-016-1441-7http://hdl.handle.net/10566/3865As a ‘case-study’ to demonstrate an approach to establishing a fertility-intent prediction model, we used data collected from recently diagnosed HIV-positive women (N = 69) and men (N = 55) who reported inconsistent condom use and were enrolled in a sexual and reproductive health intervention in public sector HIV care clinics in Cape Town, South Africa. Three theoretically-driven prediction models showed reasonable sensitivity (0.70–1.00), specificity (0.66–0.94), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.79–0.89) for predicting fertility intent at the 6-month visit. A k-fold cross-validation approach was employed to reduce bias due to over-fitting of data in estimating sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve. We discuss how the methods presented might be used in future studies to develop a clinical screening tool to identify HIV-positive individuals likely to have future fertility intent and who could therefore benefit from sexual and reproductive health counselling around fertility options.enThis is the author-version of the article published online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10461-016-1441-7HIV infectionReproductive intentionsChildbearingHIV-positive women and menSouth AfricaSensitivityArticle