Ludynia, KatrinStassen, MonicaFearon, Giles2026-02-162026-02-162026Ludynia, K., Stassen, M., Fearon, G. and Pichegru, L., 2026. Evaluation of risks of oil contamination in endangered seabirds in Algoa Bay, South Africa, linked to ship-to-ship bunkering and anthropogenic maritime activities. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 224, p.119089.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.119089https://hdl.handle.net/10566/21971This study evaluates the ecological risks of oil contamination to endangered seabirds in Algoa Bay, South Africa, linked to ship-to-ship (STS) bunkering activities and other anthropogenic maritime activities. Between 2016 and 2024, 378 oiled seabirds—primarily African penguins and Cape gannets—were admitted to rehabilitation centres, with over half linked to STS-related spills. An established modelling system was used to model the trajectory of oil from the MV Chrysanthi S spill in 2019 (400 L of Heavy Fuel Oil), using the simulated environmental conditions at the time of the spill. The model predicted that core foraging areas would have remained exposed to oil for about a week after the spill and that birds would have been found and rescued days after their contamination. Probabilistic modelling of 200 spill scenarios revealed high likelihoods of shoreline oiling and persistent surface contamination, especially during austral winter, when oil is more likely to reach Bird Island's seabird foraging areas. Spills from the offshore extent of anchorage area 2 are more likely to result in impacts on the seabird foraging areas. The model indicates that a high degree of conservatism is required when selecting ecological thresholds for impacts on African penguins, given the relatively high observed impacts despite low modelled surface thicknesses from a 400 L spill. These findings underscore the urgent need for stricter regulation of offshore bunkering in ecologically sensitive areas and improved preparedness for wildlife rescue and rehabilitation, especially in an area of such high biodiversity as Algoa Bay.enAfrican penguinsBiodiversity hotspotsCape gannetsMarine pollutionMaritime trafficArticle